There is 5 of the 9 runners that have been known to set the early pace and I'm hoping that it will set up the race for one coming from off the pace, Open Market might get outpaced over this distance and one I would lay if it was less than 5/1 in price otherwise it wont be of value to lay as it has been known to lead before but I doubt it will be able to do that here. Nelson Gay could do best of those front runners as it is my 2nd top rated horse but this one is also happy to sit just off the pace and then stay on at the finish which I expect will be the tactics deployed by CASTAN 4/1 and this 3yo won last time out over this course and distance and a repeat of that time here would see following up in this race and being a youngster it could have improved since that last win.
Castan 9/2 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
NEWCASTLE 5.50 Div II
In this division I can see a few horses with possible weaknesses in their chances of winning this race, Royal Parade is one of 3 possible pacesetters in this race but has been in woeful form of late, Ey Up Its Maggie may not like this fast running Polytrack surface, Milbanke hasn't any form over the minimum distance and races as though it might have a better chance of winning when competing over a longer distance, Rambuso Creek may also prefer a longer distance unless its improves a good few spots for its first run on an artificial surface, Le Beau Garcon hasn't won a race since 2021 although it has run well on occasions, I could lay any of them as long as they are value to do so, you will have to decide what you think is value if you decide to lay any of them, Vadamiah is a possible pacesetter in this race and its best rating on turf would make it my 2nd top rated so could go well and might be worth an each way interest, the other possible pacesetter is Astapor but this ones last 3 runs have been quite poor but is my 3rd top rated on times on this surface so could make the frame if back to form Pockley is another who hasn't been in good form recently but is my 2nd top rated, the same can be said of SHOW ME SHOW ME 8/1 (EW) who comes out in top spot on my figures so his race isn't one to be betting in too heavily if at all and unless my top rated horse drifts to a double figure price so its of value to take an each way punt on then I will be leaving this race alone.
Show Me Show Me 18/1 2nd +2.6pts
Total +2.6pts
Total on the day +1.6pts
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