A poor apprentice jockeys race where the early pace could be set by Spartan Fighter who is the only known front running type in the race but it would need to improve time wise to win the race unless it can reproduce its best course and distance rating from 2021 but has been well below that level since then, I'm not convinced that Kat's Bob 15/2 likes this surface so I will lay it if a single figure price, After John 9/4 is only my 4th top rated using a 2022 rating and is usually held up for a late run but looks very poor value at the price, South Dakota Sioux occupies the 3rd top spot and its another that's usually held up for a late run, Claim The Stars comes out 2nd best on my unique speed ratings but that's using a rating recorded at Southwell last year, can be held up or track the leaders but my money will be riding on CARIBBEAN SUNSET 6/1 who is another that's usually held up for a late run and this one recorded its best rating this year which is always a bonus.
Caribbean Sunset 6/1 4th -1pt
Lay bet: Kat's Bob -4pts
Total -5pts
NEWCASTLE 8.15
The early pace in this race could be set by my 3rd top rated horse in the shape of Another Angel and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but there is at least 5 other runners that like to track the leaders so they should ensure its a true gallop from the off. There is five 3yo’s in this race and I can find a reason to lay every one of them but because of their age they will be kept to low stake lays if they are of value to do so, I've got joint top rated horses in this race LADY CELIA 4/1 who recorded its best rating here last year but has been a few spots below that level so far this year and races as though further would suit it better while ELZAAL 2/1 usually likes to race in the rear or midfield before staying on strongly at the finish and this ones best rating was recorded over this course and distance this year which is usually a positive but to be honest they are both a shorter price than I was expecting and don't really represent value.
Elzaal 7/2 2nd -1pt
Lady Celia 9/2 4th -1pt
Lay bets: He's An Angel +1pt, King Of The Jungle +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day -5pts
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