5F Class-4 Runners-9
VENTUROUS may not want fast good to firm going but time wise I had to go back to 2020 to find a rating good enough to be competitive in this race.
TWILIGHT MADNESS has only slow times at this distance as a longer trip would probably be required for this one to show its best form but I expect it will be an outsider in the betting.
CONQUISTADOR a 3yo who likes to track the leaders but this distance might be too short for it so it might get outpaced and not recover quickly enough to catch the leaders.
ISLE OF LISMORE recorded a rating at Windsor which would be good enough for it to be my 3rd top rated so might make the frame.
TOLSTOY hasn't produced anything worthwhile time wise in its recent form and seems to go better when there's some cut in the going.
EEH BAH GUM this might be the one to set the pace to this race and is my 2nd top rated so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead in this race.
SKALLYWAG BAY this 3yo is the one that comes out in top spot on my figures and would have won last time out if it had got a clear run when trying to challenge.
JACK RYAN has never won over this distance and hasn't been in poor form recently plus a longer distance might enhance its chances.
HARRY WITH STYLE a 3yo who hasn't won over this distance and races as though further would suit it better so I expect it will be an outsider.
CONCLUSION:I'm convinced Conquistador (if fav) would be better over further and if the favourite as forecast then I will look to lay it but I am always a bit wary about laying 3yo’s, Twilight Madness, Venturous and Tolstoy are others that might be value to lay if single figure prices. Eeh Bah Gum could lead and might make it hard for others to get involved in the finish but if SKALLYWAG BAY 13/2 gets a clear run this time it could get back to winning ways.
but as usual don't forget if the rain comes then leave the race alone.
Skallywag Bay 13/2 2nd -1pt
Lay bets: Conquistador +1pt, Twilight Madness +1pt
Total on the day +1pt
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