(No selection, if you want to save time, although very interesting analysis from Eric).
The only sprint of interest today with turnout of just 8 runners with 2 known front running types amongst them, its a very strange race to analyse, Street Life 7/1 might not like this surface, Araifjan 15/2 might be better racing over further, Jumira Bridge 4/1 either wants further or a different surface or maybe both, The Grey Lass 22/1 has only produced slow times and further might show it in a better light so that half the field discarded.
You would think that would make things easier to analyse the rest of the field, Saaheq 13/2 is my top rated only because it's being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice but that apprentice is 0-7 when riding for the stable it is dropped in class to run in this race and was going to be my selection until I noticed the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last month and at this course his record is 0-8 so I should really have a bet on it just in case it does win but should I? My 2nd top rated is Mustaffiz 5/1 but this horse hasn't won in 13 races on an artificial surface, it has average trainer/jockey stats but the stable hasn't had a winner from 42 runners in the last 3 months or so so should I back this one instead of my top rated? Sitting in 3rd top spot is Red Walls 7/1 but its 161 days and 50 runners since this stable last tasted success plus the jockey is 0-7 when riding for the stable so can I back this one instead of the 2 rated higher? In 4th top spot is Show Me A Sunset 10/1 but this one comes from the same stable as Mustaffiz so its been 96 days since the stable last had a winner but this time the jockey has a 16% win ratio when riding for the stable, so do I discard the top 3 and go with this one it does look the value call in this race but is that enough reason to back it?
Ok reading all the above which one would you trust to carry your money, maybe its a race that will be best left well alone and keep our money in our pockets for a more confident bet another day but if your someone who has to have a bet in a race once you have done all the hard work in analysing the race then maybe the safest option is going with the 4th top rated horse as it has the less negatives but it would only take one of the other 3 to run near their best and its beaten, that's my final decision I'm going to watch the race and enjoy it with my money still in my pocket.
2 comments:
Very imformative showing the analysis.
Like Eric my money will be hidden from the wife waiting for a better opportunity after all it is only the bookies who have to bet every day. .
typically the top rated
horse Saaheq won at 6/1 and the 2nd top rated Mustaffiz finished 2nd.
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