A field of 8 for this class 6 dash but rather strangely only 1 known front running type in the shape of Fair And Square 7/2 who is also my 2nd top rated so if my top rated doesn't reproduce its best I will be having a covering bet on this horse but as usual my top rated horse will be my main bet. I'm Mable’s best rating has gone downhill since 2021 but a repeat of that rating would put it at the top of my ratings but it has been in poor form recently, Sparked and Pacopask are forecast to be the outsiders and have very little chance of winning on my figures but as usual never say never while Battle Point 4/1 my 5th top rated and Master Sully 9/2 my 4th top rated would need to improve a few spots time wise or the others to run poorly to win this race but I'm not sure I could actually put my head on the block and lay this pair unless they are too big in value to let run without having a lay bet on them. Suanni 7/1 is my 3rd top rated but this one has needed a run to gain fitness after a break so may need today's race to get back to race fitness. My top rated is STORM MELODY 13/2 its best rating from this year would make it competitive while its best 2022 rating would see it winning a shade cosily and the jockey does quite well for the stable and this one will be my main bet in this race with a smaller covering bet on the one that I think will set the pace to this race.
Storm Melody 13/2 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
SOUTHWELL 8.30
A turnout of 10 for this class 6 sprint where half the runners have been known to lead before and seem to be natural front running types so this race should be fast and furious for its class. Majeski Man 7/1 is drawn best of the front runners in stall 3 but would need to improve a good few spots to win this race and it might not be fast enough to lead in this race and I will lay this one if of value to do so. If I go back to 2021 then Spartan Fighter 8/1 would be my top rated but it hasn't been near that rating since then and I usually only use this years and last years ratings to evaluate each horses chance of winning a race, Gunnerside 17/2 is my top rated on recent, 2022 +2023, ratings but this one has never won at this level, Papa Cocktail 4/1 is my actual 2nd top rated but hasn't shown much in its recent races. My money will be riding on BLACKJACK 9/2 who is my 3rd top rated but is the highest rated horse without a negative against its name so has to be the one I back and this race might be run to suit a horse coming from off the pace also the trainer has done well at this course since they changed the surface and the jockey has a 23% strike rate when riding for the stable.
Blackjack 5/1 5th -1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -2pts
No comments:
Post a Comment