A field of 8 for this class 5 amateur jockeys race and the word amateur automatically means my stakes will be kept to a minimum, there isn't any known front running types in this race which is always a worry, I will look to lay Shalaa Asker 4/1 who struggles to stay this distance with a fast early pace, so the race could play into its hands but if its held up as usual then it might find the leaders not tiring near the finish because I'm pretty sure one or more will set the pace and they might then go off too fast, so that's why a race is harder to analyse without any known early paced types. Hit Mac is my 3rd top rated and also seems to be better over further so ought to run into a place here. If Lilkian 9/4 could reproduce its best 2021 rating then it would be joint top rated but has been well below that level since then, i will be backing EL HOMBRE 6/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and the stable has a reasonable 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races.
El Hombre 6/1 5th -1pt
Lay bet: Shalaa Asker -2.25pts
Total -3.25pts
SOUTHWELL 8.10
A field of 13 for this class 6 dash and 4 of them have been known to lead before, I'm not sure there will be anything of value to lay in this race, The Tron races as though further would suit it better and is 3rd best on my figures so could run on strongly enough to make the frame, Brandy Station comes out in joint top spot and likes to track the leaders so could do enough to make the frame but might not be able to catch USTATH 3/1 who is my other joint top rated so as it should have 1st run on its main contenders it could lead all the way and just hold on for the win.
Ustath 4/1 5th -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 8.30
I doubt I can find an each way bet but I hope all 8 runners take part so as to give 3 places for anyone who does bet each way. Dalby Forest 9/2 might be better when racing over further it will be staying on at the finish but I think too late for the win and will be one to lay if a single figure price and the same applies to Crimson Sand 9/1. Alafdhal is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Saaheq 16/1 would be top rated if I used a Lingfield rating it recorded in 2022 but it usually needs a run for fitness after a break so today’s race might not be its target and I think it will one of the outsiders in the race, my money will be riding on ANGLE LAND 3/1 who is the only known front running type in the race and I expect it will lead from start to finish.
Angle Land 4/1 1st +4pts
Lay bets: Crimson Sand +1pt, Dalby Forest +1pt
Total +6pts
Total on the day +1.75pts
No comments:
Post a Comment