A field of 12 for this race but none of them are natural front running types which always muddies the waters for my analysis so my stake in this race wont be very high, After John 13/8 has won its last 3 races and maybe the official handicapper has caught up with the now and being a hold up type maybe this race wont be run to suit it so at the price it looks very poor value so I couldn't back it if its a short priced favourite but I also couldn't lay it with any confidence either as it is my 3rd top rated but there's only 4lbs between my top 4 ratings. Starjik is my 4th top rated and usually tracks the leaders so might try to lead here especially if nothing else wants to and would then be very dangerous if given a soft lead, Thaki my 2nd top rated is another hold up type so I will have a small bet on MACHO PRIDE 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders so should be able to adapt to whatever pace is set to this race, the stables I reasonably good form and its best rating was recorded over this course and distance.
Macho Pride 15/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div I
I think the early pace to this race could be set by Rockley Point who is my 5th top rated and might be able to do enough to make the frame, Embla 5/1 races as though further would suit it better so this race might not be run to suit it and might be worth laying at the price, Annie Rose is my 3rd top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from last year, Elzall is usually held or races in midfield before staying on at the finish but if TATHMEEN 7/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 it would win this race a shade cosily and usually races in midfield or tracks the leaders.
Tathmeen 7/1 6th -1pt
Lay bet Embla +1pt
Total 0pts
NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div II
I backed Mehmo when it won last time out at Southwell in what was a slow run race but this race looks a much better affair and its not in my top 4 ratings for this race we do that its in good form which is always a positive plus its the only known front running type in the race so I couldn't lay it, Kraken Power 7/4 may want further or a different surface or maybe a bit of both and I would look to lay it if value to do so, it won yesterday over this course and distance and that was a relatively slow run race and if the 2nd had got a clear run it would have beaten it. Stroxx will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the leaders and it might be better when racing over further but is still a maiden after 32 runs with 11 being on an AW surface, Nellie French hasn't recorded a decent rating since 2020 but that rating would be good enough for 2nd top spot, Basholo 14/1 is my top rated but this one is 0-9 on the AW tracks and has just 1 win from 16 races in total. So looking at all the data and form to bet in this race would be risky so its either small stakes or leave the race alone and maybe the best way to profit from this race is to concentrate on the lay previously mentioned, now I've seen the betting maybe an each way punt on BASHOLO 14/1 (EW) could pay dividends.
Basholo 14/1 ew 6th -2pts
Lay bet Kraken Power -1.1pts
Total - 3.1pts
Total on the day -4.1pts
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