This a relatively poor class 6 sprint with 10 runners but no natural front running types amongst them, I cannot see anything that I think will be of value to lay and the picture for finding the winner isn't much clearer. I've got 3 horses all rated the same and one that's 3lbs lower on 2022 ratings but 5lbs higher using 2021 figures. Twentysharesofgrey 5/1 who can track the leaders or be held up recorded its best figure in 2021 at Chelmsford while its 2 course and distance runs here both resulted in it not registering on my figures as it was slow away on both occasions, Thomas Equnus 16/1 also recorded its best rating at Chelmsford but it was in 2022 and can also be held up or track the leaders. Lothian 8/1 recorded its best rating of 2022 over this course and distance but recorded an 8lb higher rating at Chelmsford in 2021. Admirable Lad 5/1 comes out in top spot on just course and distance ratings and it was recorded last year which probably puts it in pole position but Twnetysharesofgrey has by far the better trainer/jockey stats, maybe dutching all 4 is the answer or maybe leaving the race alone is best, the betting will be the final decider.
WOLVERHAMPTON 4.20
A class 6 dash for apprentice jockeys with 8 runners and half of them have been known to lead before and I think it will be won from the front. Prince Of Rome can lead but stall 8 isn't ideal although it is a versatile type but would need to improve time wise to win this race so maybe worth laying if of value to do so, Big Impact 13/2 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the leaders so maybe another potential lay. Rockley Point 14/1 a possible pacemaker is my 3rd top rated so could go well from stall 2 so maybe worth a small each way interest, Glorious Charmer could do best of those coming from off the pace so might be worth an each way punt but I will be hoping that YOU'RE COOL 8/1 can get to the front and then and then it should prove hard to catch.
You're Cool 9/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bets Big Impact +1pt
Total 0pts
SOUTHWELL 5.10
A class 5 dash with 10 runners and 3 known front running types and I think this race will most likely be won from the front. Indian Sounds and Phoenix Star may stay on too late to win this race and will be lays if a single figure price. Blazing Hot 5/2 won last time out catching the front running PEPPER STREAK 14/1 (EW) by a length but at the revised weights the form should be turned around and makes it my top rated on course and distance times while ORNATE 16/1 (EW) another possible pacesetter is my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere so i will be backing them both hoping that one of them can lead all the way here and maybe they can both make the frame and at the prices they have to be backed each way.
Ornate 16/1 6th -2pts
Pepper Streak 16/1 8th -2pts
Total -4pts
Total on the day -4pts
No comments:
Post a Comment