Ten runners in this class 6 dash with 3 of them being known to lead before, there's 4 horses, Red Stripes, Pivoting, But You Said and Liberty Bay that look to have very little chance of winning this race and I expect will be outsiders. The top 4 in the weights, Our Louise 8/1, Munificent 3/1, Jack Ryan 3/1 and Waverly Star 6/1 all race as though a longer distance would suit them better, Rockley Point 20/1 is a possible pacesetter here and has the plum stall one draw which could help its cause but my money will be riding on TOPLIGHT 6/1 who can either race in midfield or be held up for a late run and if able to reproduce its best rating from 2021 it would be winning this race a shade cosily plus the jockey does quite well with an 18% win ratio for the stable on their older horses.
Toplight 6/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40 Div II
Ten runners again with again 3 of them having been known to lead before, if I'm right there's not many horses that could win this race, I expect Nellie French, Moveonup, Elf Rising and Miss Fernando to be outsiders in the betting and look to have virtually no chance of winning this race but never say never, I think the quartet of Eastern Star 8/1, The Gloaming 9/4, Embla 5/1 and Big Time Maybe 7/1 need a longer distance to show their best form. The top weight Ellie Piper 8/1 needs to improve time wise to win this race which leaves me with SHAMSHON 9/2 who seems to like this course and if it comes back to its best here even from stall 9 it could lead all the way.
Shamshon 8/1 5th -1pt
Total -1pt
SOUTHWELL 5.15
NEVER DARK is drawn in stall 8 which isn't ideal for a front running type and needs to improve time wise to win this but won last time so is in good form.
LIHOU would be my 3rd top rated if I used its best rating from 2021 at Wolverhampton but hasnt been in good form lately but is best drawn of the known front running types in this race.
JOSIES KID this 3yo can either be held up or track the leaders its stall 5 draw might not be too bad and its my 4th top rated.
REIGNING PROFIT is a 3yo who will most likely race in midfield in this race and then its runs on strongly at the finish and comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures so maybe an each way bet.
HUDDLETON MAC will be an outsider, it looked to need further when racing over 6 furlongs so why they have dropped it to 5 furlongs has baffled me.
HIYA MAITE its racing style is to track the leaders and comes out in top spot on my figures and will likely have assistance from its stablemate to win this race.
TRIPLE JAY usually likes to track the leaders but time wise it needs to improve to win this race and stall 9 isn't going to help its cause.
JEAN'S MAITE my 5th top rated while stall 10 isn't great for a front running type it will ensure its a fast early pace to help its stablemates chances.
MURBIH this 3yo who won last time out has been known to lead and stall 4 isn't a bad draw in this race but its time only just registered on my figures.
PRIMO a 3yo who won last time out but it was a very slow time and didn't register on my figures, raised in class here but could be an improving youngster.
SUMMARY: With four known front running types in this dash it should be fast and furious, I'm not sure I can see anything worthwhile to lay in this race. As for the winner my money will be riding on HIYA MAITE 11/2 who won last time out and seems to like a fast pace to aim at which it should get here where i expect its stablemate will ensure the pace is fast and from stall 7 it could get a good tow into the race if it follows its stablemate towards the rails, it has good trainer stats with a win ratio of 15% at this course over the last 5 years but since the switch to the Tapeta surface the win ratio climbs to 32%, the jockeys win ratio is 19% for the last 5 years but climbs to 28 for just the last year so everything points to connections expecting it to run a big race here.
Hiya Maite 11/2 3rd -1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -3pts
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