ERNIE'S VALENTINE this 3yo recorded its best rating last year over this course and distance and is 2 from 2 on an artificial surface also my top rated.
ROMANTIC TIME this 3yo has only shown poor form on the All-Weather surfaces and I expect it will be an outsider.
GABRIAL THE DEVIL one of three known front running types in this race but hasn't got any surface distance form so its not for me in this race.
FAI FAI this 3yo has only poor recent form but hasn't really got enough data to work with to know exactly what its capable of producing.
SOCIETYLION hasn't any surface distance form but races as though a longer distance might be better for it.
LAHEG this 3yo comes out in 2nd top spot on my speed figures and can be held up or track the leaders and could make the frame.
TWILIGHT HEIR this 3yo is a possible pacesetter and has the ideal stall 1 draw so could make the frame as its my 3rd top rated.
MAY NIGHT I expect this to be an outsider as its not been in great form and a longer distance might suit it better.
HUDDLETON MAC has never won over today's distance and a longer distance might suit it better and hasn't shown much worthwhile form lately.
SWISS PRIDE a possible pacesetter in stall 4 but this one has never won at this level and hasn't been in good form lately either.
SUMMARY: With 3 front running types the pace should be a true one which always helps but I doubt any of the pacesetters will be able to stay there until the finish unless one of them is allowed an easy lead which I doubt will happen. Society Lion might be worth laying if a single figure price, Gabrial The Devil hasn't run over this distance on this surface before but would need to improve on its best Tapeta rating to win this race but I'm not 100% sure I could lay it even though I would be surprised if it won the race. My money will be riding on the top weight ERNIE'S VALENTINE 4/1 who is usually held up for a late run and should be able to get a decent position on the rails from which to attack late on and the stable is in good form with 2 winners from 8 runners over the last fortnight.
Ernie's Valentine 4/1 2nd -1pt
Total on the day -1pt
No comments:
Post a Comment