The first division of a 6 furlong class 5 race with eleven runners where four of them have been known to lead before so that should ensure its a true run race, one of them Ahlawi 6/1 hasn't any distance form on this surface apart from Southwell but its best rating came on the Polytrack surface so may be worth opposing, two others Bare Necessity and Ooh Is It both need to improve time wise to win this race so Bezzas Lad 33/1 may do best of the front runners but hasn't been in good form lately but if leading might make the frame but it would be a risk to even back it . Alcazan 6/1 is outside my top four ratings and looks as though further would suit it better so might also be worth taking on. Dark Shot recorded a time at Southwell which could make it competitive and this is a drop in class from four to five yet still carries bottom weight so cannot be dismissed easily. Algheed and Lilkian are my joint third top rated horses, the former is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and could possibly lead i nothing else wants to but from stall ten if pushed to try and lead could spend too much energy so i expect it will be held back in the early stages while the latter who likes to track the leaders is well drawn to do that from stall three. I will be putting my money on PORFIN 16/1 (EW) who is my top rated and is usually held up for a late run and with so many early speedsters in the race it could play into his hands so could make a decent each way prospect and a chance to win as well.
Porfin 16/1 7th -2pts
Total -2pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.55 Div II
Just ten runners in this second division but with just two known front running types and they have been drawn in stalls one and two so I expect it will be a fast run race for the class and surely nothing else will try to lead, Rebel Redemption isn't in my top four ratings so may have to give way at some point to RATTLING 7/1 who comes out in second top spot on my figures and if this one is allowed to set the pace before kicking from home in the straight it could prove very hard to catch the apprentice jockeys seven pound claim pushes it up to joint top spot and a front running horse is the easiest of rides for a less experienced jockey so it could lead all the way and this three year old has to be backed for that reason. So Grateful 9/2 hasn't any form at this course but is top rated using times recorded at Southwell but would need to improve on its best Newcastle rating to win this race but cannot be dismissed lightly. Sir Gregory is my fourth top rated and can be held up or track the leaders, Astro Jakk 7/1 comes out in third top spot and likes to track the leaders before trying to stay on at the finish so could make the frame but if EL HOMBRE 9/1 who is my top rated decides to put its best hoof forwards it could pick up the leader nearing the finish and hasn't been in bad form lately but has been known to spring back to form without warning previously so could repeat that here my main concern is the stall nine draw and the fact that the jockey is zero from seventeen when riding for the family,s stable. It is one of those races where I have to go with the two bets to cover the angles of a front running type and one that stays on strongly at the finish.
Rattling 15/2 1st +7.5pts
El Hombre 11/1 3rd -1pt
Total +6.5pts
Total on the day +4.5pts
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