This 1st division isn't too bad a race for a class 6 affair but the 2nd leg is so poor its impossible to analyse with any degree of accuracy and I will be leaving that race alone.
I'm not really sure what will lead in this race but Viewfromthestars 8/1 has done so when nothing else wants to lead and it might have to do that here but if something else sets a decent gallop then it might get outpaced early and then have too much ground to make up to win this race but if allowed an easy lead then it could possibly lead all the way as further might suit this 3yo better but its not worth the risk to lay it at the price, I've written quite a bit about this horse because the race could pivot around what this one does from the start. There are a few who have virtually no chance of winning this race but I expect them to be outsiders in the betting. Starjik even money won last time out but even for this level it was a relatively slow run race so it might have been flattered by the result and might be worth laying at least for the win part especially at the price. Nigg Bay is another that might be of value to lay as all runs over today's distance have resulted in ratings not good enough to register on my speed figures. Admirable Lad 9/2 will be to the fore in the betting and is my 3rd top rated and has won its last 3 races so I expect it to run well but I do wonder if the official handicapper has caught up with it now. Company Minx 9/1 is my 2nd top rated and finished 3rd last time out but the jockey's record of 0-15 for the stable puts me off backing it. I will take a punt with a small, hopefully each way, punt on BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 16/1 (EW) who is usually held up for a late run so would ideally like a decent early gallop so the leaders haven't got things in reserve to repel the late challengers, its poor trainer stats are a concern so a small each way punt and keep my fingers crossed it can reproduce its best rating from last year.
Bernard Speirpoint 16/1 2nd +2.1pts
Total +2.1pts
CHELMSFORD 6.00
I can see 6 possible pacesetters in this class 5 dash, I am not sure if I can find anything of value, under 10/1, to lay in this race but my best hope might be Yimou but only time and the betting will tell. There is not a lot between my top 5 rated horses, Ornate and Micks Spirit are my joint 4th top rated horses, the former is a possible pacesetter from stall 4 while the latter likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish. Howzak another possible pacesetter in stall 2 is my 3rd top rated and if getting to the front could be dangerous. Thank The Lord is my 2nd top rated and another possible front runner coming out of stall 3, the problem could be that there is another known front running type, the 3yo Thank The Lord, housed in stall 1 so there could be skirmishing if they all battle to lead and for control on the rails but another 3yo, ANGLE LAND 5/1 who finished 2nd last time out in a time that would see it winning this race but only just, it was ridden last time out for the 1st time by Hayley Turner and the stable are using her again which makes me think they are expecting, or hoping, to go one better in this race but she is 0-23 for the stable which doesn't inspire confidence but I'm hoping an each way bet might show a profit but its another race where my stakes will be kept low.
Angle Land 5/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bet Yimou +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day +2.1pts
1 comment:
Tad unlucky today with two seconds however the place price covered everything.
The consistency is the attraction so consistent
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