This isn't a great race and this 1st division is by far the worse of the two, the early pace could be set by *Giselles Izzy but it would need to improve time wise to win this race and might be worth laying in running if it does lead, Minhaaj has only produced slow times recently at this distance on the Tapeta surface but this race might not be a fast gallop so not sure what to do as it has a good time from Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface and I would look to lay it if of value, Khulu is another that can find this distance too far but everything depends on how fast the early pace is as to whether to lay this one as well, Chester Le Streak has only produced a slow time on its only run over this course and distance but has a time from on turf which would be good enough to win this race but I will be taking a punt on QAARAAT 20/1 (EW) who is the only one in the field with a time good enough to be recorded over this course and distance and might be worth the punt if its a double figure price so I can back it each way.
*NR
Qaaraat 22/1 9th -2pts
Lay bet Minhaaj +1pt
Total -1pt
NEWCASTLE 8.30 Div II
There is a couple of known front runners in this division so hopefully a true run race, there looks to be 3 horses, Jessie Allen, Baileys Bling and One More Dream that will big priced outsiders, The Gay Blade might need further and the same applies to Epeius who might be value to lay if a single figure price, the 3yo Hurt You Never is my 4th top rated and is usually held up for a late run so might not be able to reach the leaders, sitting in 3rd top spot is Billian but hasn't won on an artificial surface in 6 attempts and has only made the frame once, I have got joint top rated horses in BABA ALICIOUS 9/4 and SEE MY BABY JIVE 9/2 who are the 2 horses that have been known to lead before and are drawn side by side in stalls 7 and 8 and as long as they go off too fast in trying to lead and then fade then one of them should hold on for the win but which one I couldn't say so Newcastle will be backing them both.
See My Baby Jive 9/2 4th -1pt
Baba Alicious 4/1 7th -1pt
Total -2pts
Total on the day -3pts
No comments:
Post a Comment