A class 4 race which isn't the best for its grade, the early pace could well be set by ARAMIS GREY 9/2 and being my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating it could do enough from the front to at least make the frame and could even win the race if others falter, HELLO ME 12/1 comes out in top spot for just this years course and distance ratings and comes out 2nd best on overall figures so has to be worth an each way interest, TOTAL COMMITMENT 20/1 hasn't any form over this course to work with but its best 2021 time from Lingfield would see it win by a whisker and I cannot let it run without some money on it at the price, as all 3 did their best last year I'm not able to split them any further but I also have four other horses that I cannot discount completely the stakes for this race will be kept to a minimum and it might even be a race to leave well alone.
Aramis Grey 9/2 1st +4.5pts
Total Commintement 20/1 2nd -1pts
Hello Me 12/1 7th -1pt
Total +2.5pts
CHELMSFORD 7.30 Div I
What a poor race with only the top four in the handicap having run fast enough to register on my figures, Shamshon 9/1 would at some point in the past have eaten this lot alive but this 11yo seems to be on the decline but could possibly make the frame if able to reproduce its best 2021 rating, Babe Alicious 9/4 usually stays on strongly at the finish and with no known front runners in this race it might not be run to suit its racing style and therefore doesn't look value at the price, Mr Fayez 6/1 would have every chance using its best figure from 2021 over this course and distance but its still a maiden after 17 starts which is a bit off-putting, so my money will be riding on FLAVIUS TITUS 9/4 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish but once again the question is, will the race be run to suit it, I cannot answer that question so once again low stakes are called for.
Flavius Titus 9/4 3rd -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 8.00 Div II
Division 2 isn't any better and I will be very surprised if the winner didn't come from the top 5 in the handicap, Pretty Shiftwell 8/1 can find this distance too far for it but once again with no confirmed front running type in the race it might not get to the front soon enough for the win, Amalfi Gem 5/2 and Jumira Bridge 9/1 come out in joint 3rd top position so either could make the frame, Griggy 11/8 has been in tremendous form recently winning its last 2 races and could complete the hat trick here but I expect it to be the short priced favourite and therefore not of value to back so instead I will take a punt and go with backing COMPANY MINX 9/1 (EW) it looks the value call in the race and hoping it will be an each way price as a form of insurance with the apprentice jockey being 1 from 1 for the stable i hope he can make it 2 from 2.
Company Minx 10/1 3rd +1pt
Total +1pt
Total on the day +2.5pts
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