To be honest for a class 4 race this one isn't the greatest I guess mainly because of the five 3yo’s amongst the 7 runners, so no each way bets, I expect Serenity 3/1 will be to the fore in the betting just because of it coming from one of the top stables in the country, Belle Fourche comes out in top spot of the 3yo’s but that is only good enough for joint 2nd top spot and even then that rating was recorded on the Polytrack surface, Hello Me 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but that's one best was recorded last year over today's course and distance but my top rated is CHERISH 5/2 who also recorded its best figure over this course and distance but in this case it was recorded last time out and a repeat performance would be enough for it to follow up here but, there's nearly always a but, the 3yo’s are capable of improving dramatically without warning so any stakes have to be kept on the low side.
Cherish 5/2 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 Div I
Under Curfew 7/1 and May Remain have a recorded speed figure on the Polytrack surface but it looks as though they don't appreciate this Tapeta surface while I doubt they will be of value to lay, the two 3yo’s Olivetto 9/1 and Coast 9/2 both race as though further would suit them better but because of their age I'm not 100% sure I could lay them but this race with just 1 known front runner might not be run to suit them so I will have to see the betting as to whether I lay them or not, Q Twenty Boy is my 3rd top rated using just Tapeta ratings and usually runs on at the finish over this minimum distance, Valentine Blues won last time out and has been found an opportunity to follow up here and it wouldn't be a surprise if it did just that but that was its 1st win from 13 attempts on an artificial surface, if NACHO 9/2 runs to its best then it has been found a good opportunity to return to winning ways but this race certainly isn't one to be betting too heavily in.
Nacho 13/2 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div II
Not a great race with just 1 known front runner, there is 3 horses that look to have virtually no chance but the betting looks likely to show that fact, Level Up 9/1 may need further and I'm not sure what to expect from Peggoty 4/1 but I do think its a bit shorter in price than its chance merits, Suann 7/2 is my 4th top rated but does do better time wise on the Polytrack surface so might be worth laying at such a short price, RED WALLS 3/1 comes out in third top spot but there is only 3lbs between my top 3 if they all run to their best but this is the one I expect to set the pace to the race and could lead all the way, GLAMOROUS FORCE 11/2 is usually held up for a late run and is my 2nd top rated and could catch the leader nearing the finish, in top spot is PRIVELEGE 11/2 who usually races in midfield and can find this distance a bit too short for it if the early pace isn't a fast one, so the trio have pro’s and cons in this contest, then add on the fact that all of them have poor trainer and or jockey stats so any stakes have to be kept on the low side.
Glamorous Force 6/1 1st +6pts
Red Walls 11/2 2nd 2nd -1pt
Privelege 14/1 3rd -1pt
Total +4pts
Total on the day +2pts
Eric said:
6.00 my 2nd top rated 33/1 shot, when Hello me was a non-runner, won my selection 11/5 was 2nd the forecast paid 101.86... 6.30 my top 3 ratings were the 1st 3 home at 15/2...13/2...9/2 my selection was 2nd, the f/c 53.41 t/c 248.61...7.00 I dutched 3 horses they was 1st 2nd 3rd at 6/1..11/2..14/1 f/c 38.5 t/c 444.07, not a bad evening if i say so myself, just wish every day was this easy lol
1 comment:
Perfect results especially the 1-2-3 Int e 7.00
Excellent analysis, thank you so much .
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