A full house of 14 runners where I think the early pace could be set by Mokaman who happens to be my 2nd top rated so should do enough to at least make the frame, its not been in good form lately so not one I could rely on but might be worth an each way punt, I think Primo will be better when racing over further and might be of value to lay in this race, Rose Bandit who usually races in midfield in the early stages of a race is my 3rd top rated so could run on into the frame, my top rated using both course and distance ratings and the other 2 Tapeta courses is TOPLIGHT 5/1 who usually races in midfield or is held up at the back for a late run and the jockey has a reasonable 15% win ratio for the stable on their older horses.
Toplight 8/1 Unp -1pt
Lay bet Primo -4pts
Total -5pts
SOUTHWELL 5.00 Div I
A ten runner race where the biggest problem is the lack of known front running types so any stakes are automatically lowered, this race might not be run to suit Jackmeister Rudi who might need further to shine, Bayraat is making its handicap debut but will need to improve upon what its shown in its 3 races to date to win this lowly race but never say never, Wee Fat Mac, Griggy, Hilarys Boy and Variety Island are my 5th to 2nd top rated, in order, they are all very closely matched on their speed figures with only 5lbs between them but if CAPTAIN VALLO 8/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 at Newcastle it would be winning this race a shade cosily so has to be the one I will be backing.
Captain Vallo 8/1 1st +8pts
Total +8pts
SOUTHWELL 5.30 Div II
Nine runners in this 2nd division but this times there is some known early paced types with Della Mare is the only one with a rating over today's course and distance so could go well and Big Impact who recorded its best rating at Wolverhampton and is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta rating but not recorded here at Southwell so either or both could make the frame, Gherkin looks better on Polytrack while Tantastic can find this distance too far with a fast early gallop and both could be possible lays in this race. Secret Equity is my 3rd top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere but my money will be riding on STARSONG 9/4, this 3yo won last time out and looks to have been found a good opportunity to follow up here.
Starsong 9/4 1st +2.25pts
Total +2.25pts
NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div I
Ten runners in this class 6 sprint, the 3yo One More Dream won last time out in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve time wise but these youngsters can improve dramatically from race to race, if there is a fast early pace Macho Pride might struggle to stay the distance but with only Rockley Point, my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating, known as a front running type this race might not be run at a fast gallop from the off so I'm not sure I can lay anything with confidence, Yaahobby is my 2nd top rated and is another 3yo so it could improve further but I will be backing LADY CELIA 10/1 (EW) in stall 9 who is usually held up for a late run and those drawn middle to high can have an advantage on this course and at the price it has to be an each way punt.
Lady Celia 10/1 6th -2pts
Total -2pts
NEWCASTLE 7.45 Div II
This 2nd division seems the weaker of the 2 races, there's only Miss Calculation who had led before but that was only on sufferance and may have to do so again here but I don't think this is its favoured surface so may be worth laying along with Kath's Toyboy for the same reasoning. Most of the runners look quite poor and I can only see MY BOY JACK 9/4 as a possible bet, I think it will the favourite to win this race but it hasn't won from 14 runs with 6 of them being on an artificial surface but its rating is quite a few spots above the 2nd placed horses rating and looks well in according to my figures but the lack of a win is a major danger signal.
My Boy Jack 9/4 3rd -1pt
Lay bets Kath's Toyboy -4pts, Miss Calculation +1pt
Total -4pts
Total on the day -0.75pts
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