A 6 runner race where half the field have been known to lead, Porfin 7/2 who won last time out may be better over further and could get outpaced here at the minimum distance, Haveoneyerself 9/2 and Newyorkstateofmind 5/1 have both been in poor form recently and would need to improve time wise to win this race, Shamshon 15/2 seems a much better prospect in lower class races which leaves me with Street Parade 9/4 who is my 2nd top rated and is one that likes to lead as does my top rated horse POP DANCER 4/1 and if this one gets to the front it ought to prove hard to catch.
Pop Dancer 6/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
CHEPSTOW 4.05
The usual poor grade 6 stakes race where the top official rating is just 50 and only 3 of the runners are rated that high, Thegreyvtrain is my 3rd top rated but has been fading near the finish in every race lately and I doubt that will change here but it could make the frame if others falter, Mr Pc 9/2 and Fossos 8/1 are my 4th top rated and the latter is a front running type while the former is one of the 3 horses rated 50 so they could both run ok here, Notra Maison 5/1 is another 50 rated horse and my 2nd top rated so it could make the frame if reproducing its best, the 3rd and final horse rated 50 is the 3yo HATTIE C 12/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and comes out in top spot on my speed ratings and a reproduction of its rating 2022 rating at Salisbury would see it return to winning ways and at the price I have to go with an each way wager.
Hattie C 12/1 4th -2pts
Total -2pt
SOUTHWELL 6.40
A class 6 race with 9 runners over the minimum distance with two known front running types, the top weight So Grateful 2/1 might need further to show its best and at that price I would be prepared to take the risk and lay it, Harrogate 7/1 will be staying on at the finish and could run on into a place so might be worth an each way bet, Duke Of Firenze hasn't been in such good form so far this year but its best rating from 2021 would see it make the frame, Mews House 8/1 has been known to lead before but time wise it would need to improve to win this race but could be a another contender to make the frame, Birdie Bowers 15/2 who is my 2nd top rated is the one I think will set the pace to this race and could make the frame from the front but I will be backing USTATH 5/1 who finished 2nd last time out behind Birdie Bowers but is weighted here to reverse the form and is my top rated using just course and distance times since the new surface was laid at the end of last year.
Ustath 11/2 6th -1pt
Lay bet So Grateful -0.8pts
Total -0.8pts
Total on the day -1.8pts
1 comment:
Close to a nice winner today however the BSP place price covered the bet .
Thank you
Post a Comment