I very often look at these amateur jockey races and decide to leave them alone but for some unknown reason I analysed this one thoroughly and if I'm right I'm going to be glad I did, Deevious Beau 11/2 has poor form on turf but is the only one in the field known to front run but even with an easy lead I doubt it can hold on for the win, looking at the early tissue prices both How Bizarre 8/1 and Marwarl 11/2, who might need a longer distance to show their best form, are forecast to be single figure prices so I would look to lay them, my money will be riding on HARD SOLUTION 13/2 the trainer has a 20% win ratio at the course and the jockey is 4-8 on the stables older horses.
Hard Solution 7/1 6th -1pt
Lay bet How Bizarre +1pt
Total 0pts
KEMPTON 6.30
Only 7 runners but I am not sure what will set the pace which is always a worry so I don't think I will be able to find anything to lay and as for the winner I would side with CAMACHESS 10/3 who likes to track the leader/s and then stay on the stronger at the finish and is my top rated and the jockey has a 4-11 strike rate for the stable which hopefully makes me think connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways here.
Camachess 10/3 3rd -1pt
Total -1pt
HAMILTON 8.20
I can see two front runners in this field of nine in a class four race, I will start with something I will look to lay, Internationaldream 11/1, if its a single figure price, I could add Tipperary Tiger 9/2 to the list if the going is good to firm as it isn't its favoured surface, Ballyconneely Bay 9/1 is another that doesn't seem to like fast ground but could be a danger if the going was just genuinely good, my top rated is Jordon Electrics 3/1 who is one of the possible pace setters and would have been my bet in this race, it finished 2nd last time out but the time was relatively slow for this class of a race, the trainer is 0-16 in the last 2 weeks and its been 174 days since the stable last had a winner plus at this course the trainer is 1-20 and the jockey is 0-4 for the stable so I will be siding with CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 2/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here.
Chookie Dunedin 5/1 8th -1pt
Lay bet Internationaldream +1pt
Total 0pts
HAMILTON 8.50
A six runner dash with half the field being front running sorts and in such a small field the draw wont make much difference, I will look to lay Joshua R 5/1 who might get outpaced in the early stages here and then stay on too late to pick up the leaders, Sixcor 3/1 could do best of those coming from off the pace seeing that its my 3rd top rated, Refuge 11/1 is my 2nd top rated and a possible pacesetter but I will be backing TANASOQ 9/2 who can lead but doesn't need to as its a versatile type, the jockey has a 17% win ratio for the stable so I'm hoping that's a good pointer.
Tanasoq 9/2 4th -1pt
Lay bet Joshua R +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day -1pt
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