I love the AW races mainly because the stupid racecourses keep watering the grass at the earliest opportunity and good to firm is hardly ever the going, only 6 runners here but there is 2 known front runners, I think that Ford Madox Brown 9/1 might need further to show its best and i will look to lay it if its a single figure price, the 3yo Baileys Accolade may do best of those coming from off the pace and being a youngster it could still have some improvement to come and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if it won the race but I will stick with SWISS PRIDE 3/1 who is my top rated and one of the front running types so I'm hoping it can lead all the way for victory.
Swiss Pride 10/3 1st +3.3pts
Lay bets: Ford Madox +1pt
Total +4.3pts
CARLISLE 2.45
There's eleven runners in this race with just Kolossos known as a front running type but it would need to improve time wise to win this race but could if allowed an easy lead it could do enough to make the frame but I doubt it could win the race but I doubt it will be of value to lay but I could look to lay Stone Circle 9/2 who might need further on good to firm ground to show its best form, Muatadel 7/1 who also doesn't seem to like good to firm ground and might struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace, and Canaria Prince 9/2 who is still a maiden after 7 runs and might be better when racing over a shorter distance, Sharrabang 20/1 is my 2nd top rated horse and could go well if it springs back to form but it hasn't shown much lately so I will be backing SINGE ANGLAIS 16/1 (EW) who becomes my top rating with the jockeys 7lb claim and they have a 2-9 win ratio for the stable on their older horses and also has good 27% trainer stats it is also dropped in class to run to run in this race and at such a big price it has to be given as an each way punt.
Singe Anglais 16/1 3rd +2.2pts
Lay bets Stone Circle +1pt, Canaria prince +1pt
Total +4.2pts
NOTTINGHAM 6.20
A ten runner race where the early pace could be set by Rhythm and it might be able to do enough from the front to make the frame as its fairly close between my sixth and 2nd top rated horses, looking for something to lay I have got 2 that I hope will be single figure prices, Temple Bruer might need further to show its best, Snow Berry who may be outclassed at this level, then there's Grandfather Tom who hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 even when it was third last time out but if finding that 2020 form again it could win this race but I wouldn't want to bank on it to win but I'm not sure I could lay it either as for the winner my money will be riding on VAN GERWEN 7/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish but admittedly it has poor trainer stats but if able to repeat its best time recorded earlier this year at Ripon it would win a shade cosily.
Van Gerwen 9/1 1st +9pts
Total +9ts
WINDSOR 6.40
I haven't got a lot of data to work with for some of the entrants of this race so this is going to be a bit of a punt as I was going to leave the race alone until I saw the rating of BEYOND EQUAL 13/2 who likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish, the trainer has a 22% win ratio at this course and the jockey has had two rides and one winner when riding for the stable so it looks like connections are expecting a big run here so it might be worth a small wager.
Beyond Equal 11/1 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day +16.5pts
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