A very nice looking class two race but to be honest it isn't the strongest of races when you delve a bit deeper, most of the field look outclassed and could struggle at this level but to be honest the race all centres around WINTER POWER 7/4 who looks the only true class horse in the race, it has won at Group 1 level this race should be well inside its capabilities and I quite expected it to be a lot shorter than it is, the only question mark against it is that it hasn't run for 230 days but has won before after coming back from a break. The jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses and it looks as though connections are expecting it to win at this lower class level for its first race of the year.
Winter Power 7/2 8th -1pt
Total -1pt
MUSSELBURGH 5.23
The Racing Post says the going here is good and good to firm in places which what I like to hear when looking to analyse a race, there's 9 runners but I've only 4 with ratings good enough to register on my figures, Stroxx, Earn Your Stripes, Loquacious Boy and Summer Heights have no ratings and have not been in good form but will be outsiders and not really value to lay, Lord Of The Glen 5/2 is 1-35 on turf and that was on good to soft ground so today's surface maybe against it and a longer trip might also help its cause so may be worth laying, Blackcurrant 9/2 hasn't even made the frame in any of its runs on turf and also has poor trainer, 0-4 and jockey 0-6 stats but it is my 2nd top rated so it could run ok but maybe the win will be beyond it, so maybe another to lay, both The Gloaming who is my 4th top rated and ran ok when finishing 3rd last time out and could make the frame again in this race, and Isle Of Dreams who comes out in 3rd top spot and they like to track the leaders and either could win the race, I have KOROPICK 9/1 (EW), and it looks the value call in this race, as my top rated using a time it recorded over this course and distance last year but the trainers record at this course is 0-14 which is off putting and its been a long time since the trainer last had a winner but at the price it might be worth a small each way interest.
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