A pity but there is only 7 runners and none known as front running types, yes something has got to lead but at what sort of pace, if its a slow early gallop and becomes a 2 furlong dash then anything could win the race or more that one decides to change its usual racing tactics and there's a very fast early pace which will happen here I've no idea, if there's a decent early pace then i think any one of 3 could win the race, Rebel At Dawn is my top rated on just 2022 speed figures but that is only good enough for 3rd top spot on my overall figures I have joint top rated horses in this race Leodis Dream and SOUL SEEKER 12/1 the former hasn't been in good form recently but did record a fast time at Windsor last year, the latter is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice and if worth their claim it will tilt things in its favour and might be the value call in the race.
Soul Seeker 12/1 7th -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 4.10
Looking at the early tissue prices Aramis Grey 9/2 is forecast to be the 9/4 favourite but I think it might be outclassed at this level and represents poor value, the top weight Tiger Crusade 5/1 won at Kempton but it was a relatively slow time and may need further so maybe another one to lay if of value to do so, I expect If You Dare to be the one to set the pace and Aramis Grey and Revolutionise will make sure its kept up to its work and the latter comes out 3rd top on my figures so could do enough to make the frame but that time was recorded back in 2019 so I'm not sure if its still capable of reproducing that rating, i will be hoping that the hold up type FULL AUTHORITY 6/1 can find a clear run when it starts to run on from the rear of the field.
Full Authority 15/2 4th -1pt
Lay bet Tiger Crusade +1pt
Total 0pts
CATTERICK 5.24
I would expect the pace to be set by Redrosezorro 5/1 and it could do enough to make the frame but I doubt it can win the race but never say never one I will look to lay is Stalingrad 6/1 who might find the distance a bit too far for it and it looks a weak finishing type until its dropped into a lower class race, there is 3 others that would set the pace if nothing else wants to and are allowed to set their own slower early pace, The Armed Man is my 3rd top rated and one of those possible pacesetters so it could feasibly make the frame, Good Earth 10/1 and Drish Hero 20/1 might struggle to stay the distance so will be lays if they are single figure prices at the off any others which i think will struggle are all forecast to be double figure prices, Sfumato is my 2nd top rated using a course and distance speed figure recorded last year but I will be investing on LADY NECTAR 16/1 (EW) who is usually held up for a late run and a repeat of its best speed figure from 2021 at Thirsk would see it back to winning ways but at the price it has to be given as an each way punt.
Lady Nectar 18/1 Unp -2pts
Lay bet Stalingrad +1pt
Total -1pt
SALISBURY 6.45
Ten runners with just Michael's Choice being known to front run and is my 4th top rated so could possibly do enough to make the frame but I doubt it can win this race, I will look to lay Strike 11/4 who might need further to be fully effective and the trainer is 1-61 at this course and the horse is still a maiden after 7 runs, if SWISS PRIDE 14/1 (EW) can reproduce its best rating from Goodwood last year it would win this race a shade cosily but it is 0-14 on grass but has made the frame in 5 of those races it has won on the AW before so it can win races and the jockey has won 3-9 on the AW tracks for this stable but has only ridden once for them on grass so I cannot let it run at the price without an each way wager on it.
Swiss Pride 25/1 3rd -2pts
Lay bet Strike +1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -3pts
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