Only 7 runners with 2 that like to front run, Impeach hasn't much form to work with but has won on the AW so I couldn't back or lay it, if TOUSSARAK 14/1 is allowed to set the pace it could prove to be very dangerous and could pinch the race from the front and is my 2nd top rated, I would look to lay Lequinto who has poor form on turf and may prefer a longer distance, I should also be backing Batchelor Boy but the time this one recorded over this course and distance last year is beginning to look like a bit of a fluke result and I'm not sure it can be relied upon to repeat its best but never say never.
Toussarak 14/1 1st +14pts
Total +14pts
CARLISLE 2.20
A 9 runner race with just Quanah known to front run but I'm not sure if this one likes fast ground but if allowed an easy lead it could run better than I expect, the betting will decide whether there's any lays to be had in this race, my top rated is Elzaal using a 2021 rating but hasn't been in good form lately and the jockey is 1-33 for the stable, COLOMBE 11/10 has won its last 2 races and has been found a good opportunity to complete the hattrick.
Colombe 3/1 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
CHEPSTOW 2.30
A class 6 race where only 4 of the 8 runners have recorded ratings and I have negatives against the other 4 as well so it looks like a 4 runner race, Secretfact is my 4th top rated while my 3rd top rated Edge Of The Bay and my 2nd top rated Fossos are the ones that are most likely to set the pace to this race but if GLAMOROUS FORCE 11/2 can reproduce the rating it recorded at Bath last year it would be winning this race with a bit to spare and the jockey booking looks a positive booking.
Glamorous Force 6/1 7th -1pt
Total -1pt
CARLISLE 2.55
Nine runners in a class 4 dash and the 3yo Mytilda could be the one to set the pace to the race and time wise it is my 4th top rated and could improve further but I think it might need this run for race fitness, Elegant Erin won last time out on good to firm ground but it was a slow run race and it might have been flattered so might be worth laying, Ventura Flame is a hold up type and my 3rd top rated and could run on into a place, Sound Of Iona hasn't been in good form lately which is off-putting but its best rating from 2021 over this course and distance would make it my 2nd top rated, I will go with *HAVEAGOMECCA 6/1 who is another hold up type and its best time from Ascot last year would see it back in the winners enclosure.
*NR
Lay bet Elegant Erin -1.5pts
Total 1.5pts
CHEPSTOW 3.05
For a class 4 race this isn't the greatest, I expect Just Glamorous to set the early pace but only comes out in 4th top spot on my figures so I doubt it can lead all the way for victory, Igotatext may be better when racing over further, Airshow and Son And Sannie are my joint 2nd top rated and both like to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but my money will be riding on MAJESKI MAN 3/1 who is also one to track the leaders but a repeat of its best from Salisbury earlier this year would see it winning with a bit in hand and the trainer has a decent 17% strike rate at this course and the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it further ahead.
Majeski Man 3/1 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
PONTEFRACT 9.00
A nice class 4 dash to finish the day, the early pace looks likely to be set by Dark Shot but I think a place is the best this one can expect, Dream Composer might need a longer distance when racing on good or good to firm ground so may be worth laying while Tar Heel could also be worth taking on because it might be outclassed at this level and hasn't won since coming over from Ireland, Van Gerwen’s trainer has a 17% win ratio at this course but the jockey is 0-21 for the stable so they might have another target in mind, I will be hoping that GINGER JAM 7/1 (EW) is an each way price, the trainers record of 0-40 at this course takes away some of my confidence on its chances but an each way bet will give me some degree of insurance.
Ginger Jam 11/1 3rd +1.2pts
Lay bet Dream Composer -3.5pts
Total -2.3pts
Total on the day +7.2pts
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