KATH'S TOYBOY this horse might prefer a longer trip to show its best and a lay bet if a single figure price near the off time.
HEY HO LET'S GO is a possible pacesetter and its top rated on just 2022 ratings and joint top overall using a 2021 rating.
RELATIVE CHOICE hasn't run for over 500 days and may need this run for fitness and its best rating from 2020 wouldn't see it in my top 4 so a possible lay bet.
BIG TIME MAYBE has been known to lead before but wont get its own way in front, joint 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating could run on into a place.
INDEPENDENCE DAY is another known front running type but may need further to show its best and could get outpaced here so maybe one to lay especially at a low price.
ARZAAK comes out 2nd top rated using a 2020 speed figure and 2nd top using its best 2021 rating so could make the frame.
PERFECT SYMPHONY I don't think I could lay this horse even though I think its a better prospect when racing over a longer distance.
AVENTURINE is still a maiden after 10 races, half on turf and half on the AW tracks and would be shock if this one won this race.
HOPE SPRINGS is my other joint 3rd top rated horse but has been out of form on its recent starts and will be an outsider in this race.
HURRICANE ALERT is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics but hasn't recorded a speed figure on my graphs and a big outsider in this race.
SUMMARY: I will look to have small lay bets on both Kath's Toyboy 6/1 and Relative Choice 11/1 and slightly bigger lay bet on Independence Day 11/4 if they are single figure prices, as for the winner that's a much harder question, Hope Springs and Big Time Maybe are my joint 3rd top rated horses using 2021 speed figures, and carrying on with just 2021 ratings then Arzaak is my 2nd top rated with HEY HO LET'S GO 8/1 (EW) as my top rated and its best from 2022 is only 1lb off being top spot all round, the apprentice jockey is 0-2 for the stable which isn't enough data to form a solid opinion but the trainer has sent out 16 runners since its last win but I am hoping in this race it can get to the front and then prove a hard nut too crack but I am hoping its an each way price as a bit of insurance it case it can lead but fails to hold on for the win.
Hey Ho Let's Go 8/1 1st +9.6pts
Lay bets Kath's Toyboy +1pt
Total on the day +10.6pts
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