With both If You Dare and Mighty Gurkha being front running types it should be a true run race but I doubt if either can stay in front to the line, Mulzim and Whittle Le Woods 7/1 both might prefer the Tapeta surface but I doubt this pair will be single figure prices, as for the winner I cannot narrow it down to anything less than three with decent chances of winning if they hit top form, JACK'S POINT 6/1 (EW) is my top rated on just 2022 speed figures and third top rated using both 2022 and 2021 ratings, MUSCIKA 16/1 (EW) comes out second top rated using its best 2021 figure and third top using just 2022 ratings but this years speed figure is quite a few spots below its best figure but could be worth an each way punt, COUNT OTTO 12/1 (EW) comes out second top rated on just 2022 ratings and top using both years figures and if its possible I would hope to have each way wagers on all three of them.
Jack's Point 7/1 5th -2pts
Count Otto 12/1 7th -2pt
Muscika 25/1 Unp -2pts
Total -6pts
NEWCASTLE 2.35
A cracking class 2 Conditions race where they all carry the same weight, I will hopefully be laying Harry's Bar 9/1 who seems to prefer the Polytrack surface and has poorish trainer stats, I'm not sure if there's anything worthwhile that I could lay, while Ejtilaab 9/2 is the official top rated horse in the race but seems slightly better on the Polytrack surface, Spycatcher 11/2 is second best on my figures which again is on the Polytrack surface and hasn't run over this distance on this Tapeta surface so I'm not sure what it can achieve on this surface, GOOD EFFORT 12/1 (EW) is my top rated on course and distance speed figures and also comes out top rated overall using its best rating from Lingfield, it also has good trainer 35%, and jockey 33%, stats which hopefully means they are going all out for the win in this race and has to be given as an each way wager.
Good Effort 12/1 6th -2pt
Total -2pts
CHELMSFORD 4.30
Just 8 runners so I hope they all take part, half of the field have led before so it should have a fast early pace but I think they might set the race up for something coming from off the pace, I will be looking to lay Blackcurrent 7/2 whose trainer is 0-4 at this course and 0-5 in the last 2 weeks and its been nearly a month since their last winner plus it needs to improve time wise to win this race, I also feel that Porfin 7/1 might get outpaced here and may stay on too late for the win and might be a better prospect over further, my money will be relying on I'M MABLE 3/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and this race might be run to suit it but as this is its first run for quite awhile i will be keeping my stakes on the low side.
I'm Mable 3/1 1st +3pts
Lay bet Blackcurrent +1pt
Total +4pts
Total on the day -4pts
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