With 9 runners and 1 known front runner it might be an ok race to bet/lay in, for the lays I am looking at Gustav Graves 9/4 and *Capla Spirit 6/1 who both might find the trip too far for them with a good early gallop while Gherkin 3/1 might prefer the Polytrack surface, I've got Decision Maker 16/1 as my 2nd top rated and hasn't been at its best in its latest races but could make the frame if bouncing back to form while I will be backing RED ALERT 12/1 (EW) who is my top rated and does like a decent pace to aim at so this race could be run to suit it and hopefully an each way wager will play dividends.
*NR
Red Alert 14/1 8th -2pts
Lay bets Gustav Graves +1pt
Total -1pt
GOODWOOD 2.40
A class 2 race with 10 runners and 2 known front runners so it should be a true run affair, as for lays Fine Wine 8/1 may prefer some cut in the ground and has poor trainer stats while Tone The Barone 6/1 may not want to be on the firm side of good, Lihou can produce good ratings but in lower class races but could possibly make the frame, Atlantis Boy could go well and will be trying to run on at the finish, I will be hoping LIVE IN THE MOMENT 11/1 who has a rating from Doncaster last year that makes it my top rated but the trainers 0-14 record at this track is a bit off putting and means my stake will be kept low.
Live In The Moment 11/1 Unp -1pt
Lay bet Fine Wine +1pt
Total 0pts
GOODWOOD 3.50
A 10 runner class 3 race with 3 horses that could set the pace to the race, Many A Star 7/1 would be a danger if it was good to firm going but may better in slightly lower class races so I doubt it will be winning this race, I'm not sure if I could lay Crimson Sand 11/2 but it does seem a better prospect on an artificial surface, The Lamplighter and Count Otto will both be trying to stay on at the finish and could possibly make the frame, I will be backing BOWMAN 22/1 (EW) who is dropped in class from its recent runs and jockey is 1-4 for the stable so hope its an omen and that connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways in this race and at the price I can go with an each way wager as a form of insurance.
Bowman 28/1 8th -2pts
Total -2pts
NEWCASTLE 7.55
I hope all 8 runners take part in case anything crops up as an each way bet, Tathmeen has been known to lead before but only when nothing else wants to but it doesn't usually win at this level but could make the frame, Spice Store may need a longer trip to show its best and hasn't made the frame in any of its 5 races so will be a lay if a single figure price, Redzone and Athollblair Boy are my 3rd and 2nd top rated and either could make the frame, my money will be riding on GINATO 4/1 but hasn't won from 16 races on the AW tracks but has made the frame in 9 of those races and as it has won on turf it is capable of winning so hoping it breaks its AW duck in this race.
Ginato 11/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
NEWCASTLE 8.30
I'm not sure I can find anything of value to lay in this race but the betting will be the deciding factor, the early pace will be set by either Another Angel and/or Swiss Connection and if the former can repeat its best 2020 rating it could easily make the frame as it would sit in 2nd top spot, I will be placing my faith in BLACKCURRENT 6/1 who has good trainer 28% and jockey 21% stats with their older horses, it finished 2nd last time out and can go one better in this race.
Blackcurrent 6.1 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -5pts
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