A class 5 race over the five furlong dash distance and hopefully the going is good and good to firm in places and I hope they don't over-water, be better if they didn't water at all, the one problem with this race is the lack of known front running types but I think I have found something worthwhile to put forward, I think that Lady Nectar 6/1, Tees Spirit 7/2 and Camachess 9/2 are all better horses over a longer distance so this race might not be run to suit them, I can find very little time wise between Not On Your Nellie, East Street Revue and Teruntum Star if producing their former best, that leaves JAMES WATT 9/2 and *VAN GERWEN 14/1 who are both out of the Paul Midgley stable and are my two top rated horses, looking at the jockey bookings it would seem that the latter is their first choice in the race but my figures have the former rated slightly higher and the apprentices allowance takes it even further ahead although the betting does agree with my reckoning, if either are trying they can win this race a shade cosily according to my speed figures and instead of trying to second guess the trainers plans I will be backing both of them even with such a difference in price as I would be really annoyed with myself if the outsider won and I hadn't backed it.
*NR
James Watt 11/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 6.07
Only 6 runners here for a class 3 race which looks a bit of a nightmare to find a satisfactory conclusion, Prontissimo, Saaty and Secret moment have all had no more than 4 runs on an AW track so the data is limited and I cannot discount any of the trio with utmost confidence which means if I do bet it will be to low stakes, I would look to lay Whittle Le Woods if a single figure price as I think this trip is too short for it to show its best and needs to improve a good few spots time wise to win this race, Puerto De vega comes out 2nd best on my figures which leaves me with NIGEL NOTT 13/2 who is the only one known to front run in this race and also being my top rated it could lead all the way here and win with a bit in hand, it has finished 2nd on its last 3 runs and has been found an opportunity to go one better in this race and definitely looks the value call in the race.
Nigel Nott 10/1 3rd -1pt
Lay bet Whittle Le Woods -4pts
Total -5pts
Total on the day -6pts
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