MOHAREB 16/1 has a time from Lingfield in 2020 that would make it my 4th top rated in this race and is one of two known front runners so could go well and might make the frame.
YAZAMAN looks likely to be a big outsider in this race and hasn't won on the AW from its 5 attempts and slow times at 3 different courses so not for me.
LITTLE BOY BLUE might find this distance a bit too far for it especially with the fast early pace I'm expecting here and another outsider.
AROUSING won well last time out in a fast run race and a repeat of that speed figure would see it follow up in this race being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice here so I expect it will be the favourite.
COUNT OTTO hasn't been in the best of form on its latest runs it is my 3rd top rated but I'm not convinced it likes this right-handed course.
SECRET HANDSHEIKH is another of the possible pacesetters but needs to improve time wise to win this race plus it might need this run for fitness after a 5 month break from racing.
PRINCE OF ABINGTON this one is my 4th top rated and the apprentices 7lb claim could push it up to 2nd top spot but its another that I think will need this race for fitness.
TYGER BAY won last time out after finishing 2nd all 3 runs before that win but those races were in lower class affairs and I fear it might get out-classed at this level so one to lay.
GOOD HUMOR I expect this one to be a double figure price and it races as though a longer distance would suit it much better so a lay if it is a single figure price.
IDOAPOLOGISE is versatile with its racing tactics and can lead if needs be but hasn't been in form lately and I expect it to be a biggish price.
PUERTO DE VEGA won in class 4 and ran well in defeat when 2nd in this class of race so ought to go well again in this race.
BOBBY ON THE BEAT I expect this one will be an outsider as it looks outclassed at this level although it can produce good ratings in lower class affairs.
SUMMARY: I will look to lay Tyger Bay 9/2 who might be outclassed at this level and looks poor value for winning a relatively slow run lower class race, Puerto De Vega ran well at this level last time out and is only 2lbs from being top rated so could go well but AROUSING “evens” won very nicely last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up in this race but do expect it to be the favourite but a winners a winner.
Arousing 5/6 9th -1pt
Lay bet Tyger Bay +1pt
Total 0pts
NEWCASTLE 7.45
MILLION REASONS has only slow times recently, maybe the going has been on the slow side of standard, it could go well again here but the handicapper might have it in his grasp but I couldn't back or lay this one.
I KNOW HOW hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 but its best even from then wouldn't win this race but if there's not a fast early pace it could go well.
FIRCOMBE HALL if I go back to 2020 then this one is my top rated and might be the safest option in this race.
ATRAFAN is fairly consistent year to year with its rating but needs a bit more to win this race but never say never with the make-up of this race.
BOMB SQUAD has poor recent form and I think it will be a bit of a shock if this one wins this race although it has won over this distance before so never say never.
DUE A WIN it could struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early gallop but this race might be ok for it to keep something in reserve for the finish.
JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE has poor form to its name and another that struggles to stay this distance in a true run race so never say never with this one although I think it will be an outsider.
RED ALLURE comes out 3rd best on my figures and that's despite me thinking its better on the Polytrack surface so could make the frame but maybe not good enough for the win.
TARNHELM hasn't shown much time wise for quite a while now and I expect it to be a biggish outsider.
SUMMARY: A strange race mainly due to the lack of known front running types, something has to lead but how fast the early pace will be I've got no idea, I can only see Red Allure 15/2 of value that I can lay, I will be having a small wager on FIRCOMBE HALL 8/1 who is usually held up but I hope it doesn't deploy those tactics if its a slow early pace but with a decent gallop it could come with a late run to grab the spoils.
Fircombe Hall 8/1 6th -1pt
Lay bet Red Allure +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day 0pts
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