For a class 5 race this is a good quality competitive handicap, 3 of the 11 runners are known to lead so it should be a true run affair and of that trio Chanpagne Supanova 10/1 may do best of them but I don't think its quite up to winning at this level but could make the frame, the front running Portelet Bay (non-runner) has a good speed figure from Wolverhampton but I don't think this surface suits it but will be too big a price to be of value to lay, Knockout Blow is another that might be outclassed but I doubt it will be a single figure price but a lay if it is that short, Intervention 11/4 has been in good form on the Tapeta surface it hasn't run over this distance on this surface in England and its form on Polytrack in Ireland doesn't look good so I will be looking to lay it especially at such a short price, my money will be on LLKIAN 7/1 who’s trainer does well at this course and the apprentices 7lb claim makes it my top rated over this distance on the Polytrack surface.
Likian 7/1 1st +7pts
Lay bet Intervention +1pt
Total +8pts
LINGFIELD 5.15
This distance might be a bit too short for Aish and Blissful Song so I will look to lay them if they are a single figure price and also add Doc Sportello to the list as it seems a better horse on the Tapeta surface, Storm Melody and THE DEFIANT 5/2 are my joint 2nd top rated horses and with the latter being a front running type who has won its last 2 races and could complete the hat trick in this race and the one I think will set the pace to this race it could be very dangerous if allowed to lead and will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing LOTHIAN 9/2 who usually stays on strongly over this distance so could get a fast pace to aim at which suits its style of running and with the 2 bets I will be covering both angles.
The Defiant 3/1 1st +3pts
Lothian 9/2 8th -1pt
Total on the day +2pts
CHELMSFORD 7.15
SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD a course and distance winner who has had just 1 run this year and usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish.
ATLYAH hasn't any form on this surface but there's nothing to say it wont like it but it might be a risk to back it so maybe worth a small lay bet.
CUBAN BREEZE 3/1 a possible pacesetter but time wise it needs to improve to win this race and might be a shorter price than it merits after winning a slow run affair last time out so maybe one to lay.
IMPEACH 7/1 has led before but over 6 furlongs so I'm not sure if its fast enough to lead over this distance but I think it needs further to show its best form so maybe worth laying if a single figure price at the off.
SAAHEQ hasn't any recent course and distance form to its name it does have a good rating from Lingfield but may need this run for fitness.
VANDAD stall 3 for this possible pacemaker, its needs to improve on its c/d ratings but its best Lingfield figure would put it in the mix.
EXPERT OPINION 11/2 is out in stall 10 which isn't ideal for this front running type and would need to improve a few spots to win this race and maybe poor value due its 2nd place run last time out.
DARK SIDE PRINCE 15/2 another that has been known to lead before and could gain control of the rails and could do enough to make the frame.
LA ROCA DEL FUEGO the trainer does quite well at this course but might need a degree of luck from stall 7 with 3 front runners drawn around it.
SHAMSHON may need a longer distance to show its true form and might get outpaced in this race and I think will be a double figure price.
RED WALLS has been known to lead before but needs to improve time wise to actually win this race but will be an outsider in this race.
SUMMARY: This looks the best sprint of the day and there's up to 7 of the 11 runners that have led before but that could play into the hands of something coming from off the pace, Vandad 25/1 could do best of the front runners but they might go off too fast and fade nearing the finish so my money will be riding on SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 22/1 (EW) who is dropped in class to run in this race and has won twice and been placed twice from its four runs over this course and distance so could be a good each way wager in this race.
Sir Rodneyredblood 22/1 8th -2pts
Lay bets Atiyah -6pts, Cuban Breeze +1pt, Impeach +1pt
Total -6pts
Total on the day +4pts
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