I'm not sure what the going will be but I'm hoping its at least good ground and if it is good then I could add Mo Celita to my list of lays as it seems much better when there's some cut in the ground, others that I will look to lay are Mondammej who might be better racing over a shorter distance and may also be outclassed at Listed level and Volatile Analyst may also not be up to winning at this level, my top rated is GARRUS 15/8 who is actually dropping down in class compared to its last few runs and has won twice before when returning from a break from racing I don't usually like to back favourites but at this level its a different story and if fully fit it looks a strong bet, add on the stables 21% strike rate at this course and the jockeys 43% win ratio for the stable everything points to connections expecting it to be visiting the winners enclosure.
Garrus 15/8 15/8 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
KEMPTON 3.55
On paper a cracking class 2 sprint with 8 runners so I'm hoping they all run and then I can have an each way wager, its a tricky looking race and I don't think there's anything I could lay with any confidence so that's not the way to go to make a profit from this race, Ejtilaab and Repartee will make sure there's a fast early gallop by making sure the leader isn't able to set a slower place than usual but I'm hoping PAPA STOUR 11/1 (EW) can lead and then prove hard to catch, the 7lb claiming apprentice is 0-13 for the stable which is a bit off-putting but the 7lb claim could swing things in its favour and if an each way price then that will be the way I will go but only to small stakes.
Papa Stour 18/1 6th -2pts
Total -2pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 Div I
This division looks very poor with only 2 having recorded a rating on my speed figures but even then they are low ratings, my 2nd top rated Calins Lad 10/3 is forecast to be the favourite and it might well win this race as my top rated Porfin 7/1 can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace and i have no idea if there will be a strong early pace or not so it might not be troubled by the distance in this race,so I will take a watching brief and leave this race alone.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div II
I have got six with ratings in this 2nd division, I will start with the lay/s and 1st on my list is Jack Ryan 4/1 who is 0-17 on the AW surfaces and the jockey is 0-15 for the stable, Highest Ambition 12/1 may struggle to stay the distance with 2 known front running types in the race especially as they both have recorded speed figures, Decision Maker 8/1 will also be on this list if its still a single figure price at the off, Eye Of The Water 6/1 is top rated using just recent Southwell ratings and comes out 3rd top on my overall figures so being a front running type it could go well but its been 58 days since the stable last had a winner and has only won once from 19 runs on the AW tracks but it could make the frame, Red Alert’s 3/1 poor jockey stats, 1-29, puts me off this one a bit but does come out in 2nd top spot but isn't an each way price, it doesn't seem a race to be betting in too heavily but I will have to side with AMAZING AMAYA 6/1 who has the stall 1 draw and could come from off the pace and pick up the leaders nearing the finish so a small bet could pay dividends.
Amazing Amaya 15/2 4th -1pt
Lay bets Jack Ryan +1pt
Total 0pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
A nice looking class 4 race with 12 runners and a guaranteed decent early gallop, firstly I will be looking to lay both Melly's Flyer (NON_RUNNER) who might not find this surface ideal also the trainer is 0-21 with their older horses at this course and Candescence 11/1 who may need further to show its best form also the jockey is 1-57 for the stable, speed figure-wise Aramis Grey could go well again here but with the trainer not having had a winner in the last month or so its not for me win wise, Invincible Larne 11/1 is my 3rd top rated but the trainer has a poorish 8% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-6 for the stable but could still make the frame, Water Of Leith 6/1 is well weighted on its best rating but I'm not sure its quite up to this class and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable which leaves me with INEVITABLE OUTCOME 16/1 (EW) who takes over top spot when taking off the apprentices 3lb claim, it has been beaten in a photograph at this class before while the jockey has a 19% win ratio on the stables older horses so i am hoping its an each way price just in case its not quite up to class 4 standard.
Inevitable Outcome 16/1 8th -2pts
Total - 2pts
Total on the day -5pts
No comments:
Post a Comment