QUEEN OF BURGUNDY may need further to show its best and time wise its got a bit to find but I doubt it will be of value to lay.
KATHEEFA has been in poor form lately but does come out joint 3rd top rated using a 2020 speed figure but I suspect it will be an outsider if not then a lay.
*LINCOLN GAMBLE 4/1 hasn't done a recordable time on any of the 3 courses that have this Tapeta surface and may need a longer distance to show its best, so one i will look to have a one point lay on.
I KNOW HOW recorded its best time in 2019 and its times since then have been a lot lower and one I will look to lay if of value to do so.
STORM OVER is one of the three front running types in this race and also my top rated using its best time from 2021 and did a decent time at Southwell best of the 4 that have run there.
PURPLE POWER is another that has been known to lead but has never run on this surface before and might need a longer distance so might not be quite quick enough to get to the front.
WON LOVE 4/1 the 3rd of the front running types but this one sets a slow pace when it leads which it wont be allowed to do in this race so one to lay.
PADDY POWER comes out as my second top rated using a 2019 rating and and co third best using a 2021 rating so could make the frame.
MILLION REASONS 7/1 hasn't any form over this distance on this surface and won last time out in a slow run race at Lingfield so may need further and maybe another one to lay.
WESTERN MUSIC 4/1 is another that looks to want a longer distance, has a slow time from both Wolverhampton and Southwell where it won last time out and one I will look to lay.
SUMMARY: In theory I could look to lay seven of the ten runners for various reasons and the betting will show which ones finally make my lay list, Katheefa comes out joining 3rd top rated using a 2020 rating so could possibly make the frame but its not been in form recently so maybe not strong enough positives to even back each way but never say never with this one, Paddy Power 16/1 is my 2nd top rated and usually stays on at the finish over this distance and may need further to show its best but an each way bet could pay dividends as it could run on enough to make the frame and might be even be worth doing for the forecast along with the one i will be backing, STORM OVER 40/1 (EW) is my top rated using a 2021 rating and although at first glance it doesn't look to be in good form recently it did record the best time of those that have run at Southwell on their new Tapeta surface so I am hoping it can lead all the way in this race, the stables poor recent form does temper my confidence and hence my stakes but if its a double figure price as forecast in the early tissue prices then it will be an each way wager.
*NR
Storm Over 40/1 8th -2pts
Lay bets Million Reasons -7.5pts, Queen Of Burgundy +1pt, Katheefa +1pts, I Know How +1pt, Won Love +1pt, Western Music +1pt
Total -4.5pts
NEWCASTLE 7.00
TRIGGERED a lot of its form was in higher class races but has ran twice at this class 5 level where it ran well in defeat so it could go well again here but the jockey is 0-4 for the stable while its 57 runners and 43 days since the stables last winner, its my second top rated using c/d speed figures and top rated of those that have run at Southwell on this surface.
SPARTAN FIGHTER is one of two known front runners in this race and is my top rated using a course and distance speed figure it recorded last year, its another that has been dropped in class and could possibly lead all the way.
KRATOS has had two previous course and distance races and neither times has it done a recorded speed figure, it only comes out 3rd top using a Southwell rating and would need to improve to win this race and its with a more than capable stable but maybe worth laying.
CARIBBEAN SUNSET has had 1 previous course and distance race which resulted in a slow time therefore no recorded rating, its best time from Lingfiled wouldn't be good enough to win this race and another i would look to lay if of value to do so.
JUNGLE SPEED is the other known front running type but time wise, using its best rating which was recorded in 2020, it would need to improve to win this race, and its best rating from 2021 was a bit below its previous years best.
BURROWS SEESIDE usually races in midfield before trying to stay on resolutely nearing the finish and comes out second best on my own unique speed figures so could go well enough to make the frame but I doubt in will be an each way price.
ATHOLLBLAIR BOY this nine year old seems to be on the decline as i had to go back to 2019 to find its best speed figure and even that rating wouldn't be enough to win this race and its best rating from 2021 was a good few spots below its best rating.
MARSELAN is making it debut here on an AW course, its not run over this distance before but all its turf form points to it wanting a longer distance so a lay if of value to do so, which I doubt.
SUMMARY: The betting will decide which horses I lay in this race but the candidates are, Kratos, Caribbean Sunset and Athollblair Boy while two others possibles, Marselan and Jungle Speed look likely to be double figure prices, when looking at the betting near the off time, Burrows Seeside is my 2nd top rated and could run into a place but I'm not sure it will be an each way price, the top weight Triggered 5/2 could go well and might have been with a bet if its trainer/jockey stats hadn't been negative, so I am hoping that SPARTAN FIGHTER 14/1 can lead and set the pace to the race and could then be hard to catch and it is also dropped in class and looks to have been found a good chance to get back to winning ways here.
Spartan Fighter 14/1 1st +14pts
Lay bet Carribean Sunset +1pt
Total +15pts
Total on the day +11.5pts
Lay bets must be 9/1 and less sp or no bet
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