ATLYAH 9/2 usually likes to track the leaders but time wise it does need to improve but has won twice from 9 AW races and could make the frame.
VANDAD 16/1 hasn't any form over this distance on this surface and has only won once from 19 previous AW runs and isn't worth laying at the price.
LILKLAN 7/1 likes to track the leaders but may find today's trip a bit too short but does have a decent rating from Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface but maybe worth a lay if a single figure price.
SARAHS VERSE 14/1 hasn't won from its 8 previous AW runs and its another one that i think is better when running over a longer distance but not of value to lay.
THE THIN BLUELINE 13/2 hasn't any form at this course and only a slow time from its only run over this distance at Newcastle but comes out top rated on recent runs at Southwell so could win this race if taking to the course.
BUY ME BACK 10/1 would need to improve on its best speed figure recorded here last year but is one the 2 known front running types in this race but I doubt it can lead all the way.
SERAPHINITE 14/1 is usually held up or runs in midfield but I'm not sure it can pick up the leaders but I expect it will be an outsider.
CUBAN BREEZE 4/1 is the other known front running type in the race and the one which I think will set the pace and is 4th top rated on my figures so could do enough from the front to make the frame.
SCALE FORCE 6/1 has decent jockey stats and comes out as top rated on my recent figures here in this case this years figure and has decent jockey stats plus the stables in good form with 2-5 in the last 2 weeks.
PERFECT SIGN 66/1 hasn't been showing much recently and i expect it to be a big priced outsider and a real shock if it wins.
MUTABAAHY 20/1 is a bit hit and miss with its form and recently its been way out of form and doesnt seem to be one to win without showing signs of a revival before winning but another outsider.
SUMMARY: Firstly I will be laying Lilklan who may need further than today's distance to show its best and its top rating comes from the Polytrack surface and the apprentice jockey is 0-10 for the stable in the last 5 years, as for the winner I will be looking to back two horses, my main bet will be riding on THE THIN BLUE LINE 13/2 from stall 2 who would win the race using the rating it recorded at Southwell and has a positive jockey booking but this is its first run at this course so i will be have a smaller covering bet on SCALE FORCE 6/1 who is my top rated using course and distance ratings and also has good jockey stats it likes to run on at the finish but stall 11 might not be ideal in the early exchanges.
The Thin Blue Line 13/2 1st +6.5pts
Scale Force 7/1 7th -1pt
Total on the day +5.5pts
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