This is one of those lowly stakes races and to make things worse there isn't any known front running types in the race, I think that Cool Spirit 9/2 is better over a shorter distance and might be worth laying if the price is right but that will be hoping the early pace is fast enough to ensure it doesn't last home, I could also lay *Million Reasons 11/4 who is forecast to be the favourite here won last time out in a slow run race so may have been flattered and Ocean Eyes 7/2 who was 2nd that day is weighted to reverse the form in this race, Perfect Symphony 10/1 is another that looks better over a shorter distance and might be worth taking on with a lay bet, as for winning this race I will be backing 2 horses, KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 9/2 who is my top rated on just recent, 2021/22 c/d speed figures and is usually held up for a late run so will be hoping the early pace is strong enough for the leaders to be tiring as this one starts to run on, the same applies to my other bet INDEPENDENCE DAY 4/1 as this one is also a hold up type and this ones best time comes from 2020 but did record a time last year at Newcastle to show it has still got enough to win this race if on song.
*NR
Independence Day 8/1 3rd -1pt
Knockabout Queen 9/2 6th -1pt
Lay bets Cool Spirit -2.25pts
Total -4.25pts
NEWCASTLE 4.45
Only 6 runners with only Blazing Hot 3/1 been known to lead before although this one is versatile with its racing tactics and doesn't have to lead but could attempt to do so here and could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead, I will look to lay Ubaahha 12/1 if its a single figure price at the off, Ginato 15/2 has a good speed figure but is still a maiden on the AW surfaces after 11 attempts plus its been over 80 days since the stable last had a winner which is off-putting and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable, my money will be riding on DEEVIOUS BEAU 5/2 who has the best Southwell rating and 2nd top on this surface at Wolverhampton and it has good jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run here but is a bit shorter in price than I was expecting but hey ho a winners a winner.
Deevious Beau 9/2 3rd -1pt
Total -1pt
NEWCASTLE 5.45
The early pace in this race could be set by Mokaman and/or Fine Wine 8/1 although I think the latter may prefer the Polytrack surface and is one I will look to lay if its a single figure price at the off, others I will be looking to lay for various reasons are Sugar Baby 3/1, Lazyitus 8/1 and One Hart 6/1, if TATHMEEN 9/1 reproduces its best time from last year it would be winning this race with a bit in hand and it recorded an even better rating from 2020 so will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing THE THIN BLUE LINE 7/2 who recorded a good rating from Southwell, this is its debut over this c/d but if repeating its best Southwell speed figure it would have a very good chance, (I have sort of contradicted myself saying both horses could win this race it is down to the fact that with Southwell having the new Tapeta surface installed 2 months ago it is still hard to compare those ratings against the Newcastle and Wolverhampton ratings).
Tathmeen 9/1 3rd -1pt
The Thin Blue Line 7/2 7th -1pt
Lay bet Sugar baby +1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -6.25pts
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