A poor race split into 2 divisions so its not a race to be betting in too heavily, Sir Gregory 6/4 won last time out over this distance at Kempton but that was a slow run race and it might have been flattered by the result, its 3 runs on this surface at Wolverhampton all resulted in slow times and is poor value so I will look to lay it, I will also look to lay Won Love 5/1 who has poor trainer/jockey stats and is still a maiden after 9 runs with slow times at both Kempton and Lingfield so would need to improve for the switch to this Tapeta surface, Wicklow Warrior 25/1 is my 3rd top rated but hasn't been in form in its latest runs and I'm not sure it would be worth the risk to back it each way, Delegate The Lady 12/1 comes out 2nd top rated but that's using a time recorded at Chelmsford while its sole run on this surface resulted in a slow time so not a back or lay in my eyes, my money will be riding on BRAZEN ARROW 6/1 who won last time out at Wolverhampton and has been found a good chance to follow up that win and in the make-up of this race stall 9 might not prevent it from getting to the front an setting the pace and then could prove hard to catch.
Brazon Arrow 6/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bets Won Love +1pt
Total 0pts
SOUTHWELL 2.30 Div II
I said this was a poor race and this 2nd division is dire I have found a negative against every single horse in the race, I was at first thinking about laying Western Rocket and Rhubarb but with such poor opposition they might now have a chance so I'm saying leave this race alone, no bets or lays.
CHELMSFORD 6.00
I can see 3 front running types in this race and I will backing one to lead all the way as my top 2 rated horses are both in those 3, *Zarzyni 9/4 hasn't any form on this surface and may need a longer distance to show its best form and would need to improve on its best rating on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton so looks poor value and worth laying at the price, another I will look to lay is Royal Pleasure who hasn't any form over this distance but might prefer a longer distance to show its true worth, Muscika and Count Otto are my 3rd and 4th top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace, Nigel Nott 25/1 has the plum stall 1 draw and is my 2nd top rated so could go well and might be worth an each way punt but I will be backing TOP BREEZE who will be hard to catch if getting to the front and has good trainer/jockey stats.
*NR
Top Breeze 15/2 6th -1pt
Lay bet Royal Pleasure -4pt
Total -5pts
CHELMSFORD 6.30
Its a shame really because this is a class 3 race and I cannot analyse it to a conclusion, I was finding some horses to lay, Dark Side Prince, Lucky Ava and Crimson Sand who all look as thought they might be outclassed at this level but the facts are that only leaves the top weight that might be class enough to win but this ones trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 35 days, so it looks like I will be leaving this race alone as well as the earlier one.
Lay bets Lucky Ava -6.5pts, Crimson Sand +1pt, Dark Side Prince +1pt
Total on the day -4.5pts
Total on the day -9.5pts
No comments:
Post a Comment