LLAMBA 5/1 has a relatively low rating using a speed figure from Newcastle in 2019 but hasn't any recent surface distance form to work with but a longer distance might help its cause so could be worth laying if priced in single figures.
CHERISH 5/1 has any form on an artificial surface over this distance but has won on good to firm ground on turf but its another that might prefer further to show its worth and another that might be worth taking on with a lay bet.
MUTABAAHY 8/1 is another that may be better over a longer trip and time wise it would need to improve to win this race and would be a lay if priced in single figures, which I doubt.
LA ROCA DEL FUEGO 10/1 one of two known front runners in the race and stall 9 in this race might not be too much of a hindrance and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch as it comes out in top spot using its best Chelmsford speed figure and this is its first run over this distance on this surface but did seem to handle the surface when raced over 7 furlongs here.
GHAALLYAH 16/1 hasn't any distance form to its name but has faded over 6 furlongs so this drop in trip could help unless it gets outpaced over this distance, I couldn't bet or lay this one.
GOOD EARTH 7/1 only registered a slow time when finishing 2nd over this course and distance plus its run at Lingfield over this distance also resulted in a slow time, mainly I think because its a better horse over 6 furlongs, so maybe worth laying if single figure odds.
HIGHEST AMBITION 25/1 is still a maiden after 8 races, seven of those runs on an artificial surface plus 3 of those 7 were over this course and distance but I suspect it will be an outsider.
GLAMOROUS FORCE 4/1 is usually held up for a late run over this distance and comes out 4th top on my speed figures so could possibly make the frame if others falter but isn't an each way price.
WE’RE REUNITED 9/1 this one would need to improve time wise on what its shone so far in its races, its best time from 2020 over this course and distance would see it just outside my top 4 ratings so maybe worth taking on.
YOU’RE COOL 33/1 is the 2nd known front runner and this one is in stall 10 but the trainer is 0-7 for the last 2 weeks and its 106 days and 53 runners since the stable last had a win.
TRUSTY RUSTY 6/1 usually likes to track the leaders but from stall 4 it would need some luck not to get squeezed out in the early stages but could stay on with a clear run and possibly make the frame.
SUMMARY: There are a few runners that I could look to lay depending on seeing the betting but I think this race will be won from the front as my top 2 rated horses are both likely pacesetters and my money will be riding on LA ROCA DEL FUEGO 10/1 (EW) who is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice who has a very good strike rate for this stable on this horse and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back and at the price it has to be an each way wager.
La Roca Del Fuego 12/1 7th -2pts
Lay bets Cherish -7pts, Mutabaahy +1pt
Total on the day -8pts
No comments:
Post a Comment