A relatively poor class 6 handicap, which will not take much winning, split into 2 divisions there's quite a few in this field of 14 that are out of form or have negatives against their names under today's conditions,IE: course, distance, surface, the top weight Aces 7/2 who is my 3rd top rated using a time from Lingfield might be one of those to lay if the tissue prices are to be believed due to the fact it is a better horse over a shorter distance and has only recorded 3 slow times on its 3 previous c/d runs, another to consider laying is Royal Heart 8/1 if its a single figure price, Brazen Arrow 16/1 is my 4th top rated on overall speed figures but is 2nd best on just 2021 c/d speed figures so could go well and might be worth an each way punt, Maid Millie 4/1 is my top rated using a time from 2020 but its best from this year has been well below that level and the jockeys 0-3 record for the stable makes me think they might have a future race in mind but I might have a small covering bet on it but my main bet will be VINCENZO COCCOTTI 15/2 who is my top rated for just this years c/d speed figures and working with the apprentice jockeys claim it is also top rated overall.
Vincenzo Coccotti 12/1 4th -1pt
Lay bets Royal Heart +1pt, Aces (not given as returned double figure odds)
Total 0pts
CHELMSFORD 6.30 Div II
This division is a bit complex to analyze, again there a few with negatives against their name and haven't been in form lately of those I would look to lay Hope Springs 8/1 if its a single figure price as the trip might be too far for it if the early pace is decent, Kraka 25/1 would be my top rated if I used a 2019 speed figure buts its best for the last 2 years, 2020/2021, is way below that standard and has been in very poor form lately and I am going to ignore that speed figure as it now seems irrelevant and the betting backs that up, I've got joint 5th top rated horses in Sword Exceed and Perfect Symphony and they are just 1lb below my joint 3rd top rated horses, Bungledupinblue 10/1 and The Tron 7/1, I've also got joint top rated horses on this years speed figures and ignoring a faster time I mentioned earlier they are also joint top rated on my overall speed figures so I will be backing both MONSIEUR FANTASIE 16/1 (EW) and BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 14/1 (EW), the former usually races in midfield but both the trainer and jockeys stats are 0-31 which doesn't bode well while the latter has a 11% strike rate for the trainer but a poor 4% win ratio by the jockey, so I am hoping they will be each way prices and I will then go with a couple of small each way punts.
Monsieur Fantasie 16/1 2nd +3pts
Bernard Speirpoint 14/1 3rd +2.5pts
Total +5.5pts
Total +5.5pts
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