BOBBY ON THE BEAT hasn't any form at this distance on this surface and might need further to show its true form so could be a lay bet at 6/1.
BLAZING HOT a versatile type who can lead but maybe not over this distance and has a better rating over a shorter distance and might be worth taking on at 5/2.
CLOSING BELL this 3yo has poor recent form but has faded over 7 furlongs so this drop in distance might suit it.
DARING GUEST it would need to improve on its best rating which was recorded back in 2019 so may be worth laying with a small stake at 8/1.
TOMSHALFBROTHER has a rating from last year which would make it my second top rated but has been a bit below that level this year.
YOU'RE COOL a possible front runner in stall 3 but has only slow times this year and its best from 2020 would make it my 3rd top rated so maybe a small each way punt at 25/1.
BARRINGTON another possible front runner in stall 4, it hasn't any c/d form and only a poor rating from Newcastle so maybe this surface doesn't suit it so maybe worth a small lay at 8/1.
SIR HECTOR is top rated using a time recorded in January this year and its hasn't run over this c/d since then and has been known to bounce back to form without prior warning.
DAYSAQ time wise this one would need to improve as its only 5th best on my figures and this might not be its favoured surface.
FROSTED ANGEL a 3yo who has only shown relatively poor recent form and it would be a shock if this one won and it looks poor value at 15/2.
WON LOVE a 3yo who has only shown relatively poor recent form and it would be a shock if this one won
MR PC a 3yo who has only shown relatively poor recent form and it would be a shock if this one won.
COMETH THE MAN a 3yo who has only shown relatively poor recent form and it would be a shock if this one won.
SUMMARY: There should be a decent early pace but I am hoping a front running type wont be able to stay in front the whole way and it doesn't look like a race to be betting too heavily in but i will be hoping that SIR HECTOR 20/1 (EW) can spring a surprise, it is my top rated and has been known to get back to winning ways without warning, its had 13 runs since its last run here all on the Polytrack surface so I'm hoping the switch back to the Tapeta surface will see it spring back to form and will hopefully be worth an each way punt.
Sir Hector 25/1 1st +31.25pts
Lay bet Bobby On The Beat +1pt
Total +32.25pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.40
ALEEF would need to improve time wise and races as though further might see it in a better light but it think will be an outsider.
SMOKEY comes out joint 3rd top rated using a time it recorded this year and might be worth an each way interest.
TOPLIGHT is a 3yo that won last time out and has been found a good opportunity as it is my 2nd top rated using its most recent race.
TRUSTY RUSTY its best time doesn't see it it my top four ratings and can be held up or track the leaders but might not catch the pacesetters so maybe worth laying at 5/1.
JUMIRA BRIDGE is my top rated using a rating it recorded earlier this year but hasn't been in great form in its recent runs.
PORFIN is in very good form winning its last 2 races but it might be a better horse over six furlongs and could get outpaced at this distance so maybe worth a lay at 4/1.
Q TWENTY BOY looks a horse that needs a longer distance to show its best form and time wise would need to improve and maybe worth laying at 9/2.
BARE GRILLS one of two known front runners in this race and it comes out joint 3rd top on my ratings so might be hard to peg back for most of these.
MAY THE SIXTH is the second known front running type but it isn't in my top four ratings but I expect it will be an outsider.
NAGASAKI DREAM is a 3yo who is held by Toplight and it might be a better prospect over further and might be worth taking on here if a single figure price.
AMAZING AMAYA has only slow ratings over this distance both here and at Newcastle so maybe its not its favourite surface.
SUMMARY: I'm hoping that Bare Grills will set the pace to this race and could do enough to make the frame but I will be backing two runners,TOPLIGHT 5/1 a 3yo who won last time out and could follow up here and would have been my sole bet but I do have *JUMIRA BRIDGE 20/1 rated 3lbs higher, it hasn't been in good form lately but is one that can bounce back to form without warning so I cannot let it run without a bet at a big price.
Lay bets must be priced 9/1 and less sp
*NR
Top Flight 8/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bets Trusty Rusty +1pt, Porfin +1pt, Q Twenty Boy +1pt
Total on the day +34.25pts
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