This class 4 race is very complicated with form lines and speed figures coming from various courses some on this surface and others on the Tapeta surface, the top weight Outrage 15/2 is a much better horse over five furlongs and I would look to lay it in this race over six furlongs with a couple of known front running pacesetters to make sure there is a fast early pace and the 3yo Twilight Madness 7/4 from the prime draw of stall one could do best of those two but it would need to improve time wise to win this race but it could go well but I doubt it will be an each way price (I sure wasn't wrong but 7/4 is very poor value), Concierge 25/1 comes out 4th best using a Kempton time from 2020 but hasn't shown much in its recent turf runs but might be worth an each way bet if others falter, Fauvette 9/2 is my 3rd top rated using a time it recorded at Chelmsford this year and a repeat here could see it make the frame but its forecast to be the favourite so not an each way price and it might be worth laying the win part, the bottom weight Camachess 22/1 is capable of recording a good speed figure but in lower class races so it could go well but i doubt it can win this race as it seems to either win or be nowhere so i will be backing MUSCIKA 8/1 who ran a decent race on its only run this year over this course and distance but a repeat of the time it recorded last time out when winning over this distance at Chelmsford would see it winning this race a shade cosily.
Muscika 12/1 1st +12pts
TotL +12pts
LINGFIELD 2.40 Div I
This first division is quite poor even for a class 6 race and looking at the tissue prices I have negatives against the first three in the betting, Morty 3/1 who might find the trip too far and looks like being a shorter price because it won last time out, Della Mare 13/2 who won a race two runs ago at Kempton but it was a relatively slow run affair, Julie Johnston 13/2 has recorded slow times over this distance and on this surface at Kempton and Chelmsford so I cannot see any reason why that should change here but I also have to mention that this race will not take much winning, the one at the bottom of the handicap, Mercers, hasn't shown much lately and seems on the decline at just 7 years of age but its best time from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated while its best from 2020 was 10lb’s lower, I will be having a small wager on 2 horses, firstly BRAZEN ARROW 15/2 who hasnt any course form to its name but its best time recorded at Chelmsford this year makes I my 2nd top rated and its time last time out was only 2lbs below its best but I do have *BERNARD SOIERPOINT 14/1 rated 1lb higher using a time this one also recorded at Chelmsford this year and its only ran over this course and distance before which resulted in a slow time, to be honest i am hoping they are both going to be each way prices as that looks the best way to go in this race.
*NR
Brazen Arrow 15/2 9th -1pt
Total -1pt
LINGFIELD 3.15 Div II
There isn't really enough data to work with in this second division, six of the twelve runners are 3yo’s and a lot of the others have been in poor form so I will be taking a watching brief in this race in the hope it can be of help in the future.
Total on the day +11pts
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