A twelve runner race where seven of them, Shanghai Rock, San Juan, Portias Pearl, Red Stripes, Tittleys Rock, Lady Susie and Tilsworth Valerie, are either out of form or not shown any worthwhile form to date, I would hope to lay Jaffathegaffa 7/1 who I think might need further to show its best and this race might not be run to suit it, Howzak 3/1 has been known to lead before but over 6 furlongs so I'm not sure if it will be away quick enough to lead now its dropped to 5 furlongs but could be staying on at the finish and its best speed figure recorded here over 6 furlongs would make it mt top rated but I'm not sure that figure can be used in the context of this shorter distance race so neither a lay or a bet but I am hoping it doesn't cope with this drop in distance although it looks as though the bookies think it will handle to drop to 5 furlongs but looks too short in my opinion to take that risk but whether I've got the heart to lay it just because of the poor value, Rockesbury 5/1 is my 3rd top rated and should be staying on at the finish as I think a longer distance suits it better but isn't my idea of an each way price, Swell Song 13/2 is my 2nd top rated and is the one I think will lead in this race and the stall 1 draw will certainly help its cause BUT the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks and this 5yo is still a maiden after having had 24 races, it has made the frame in 7 of those races so could make the frame again in this race, my money will be riding on BLUELLA 7/2 who has only had one previous run on a polytrack surface where it was held up and in a relatively slow run race couldn't make any inroads close home but still recorded a time that would give it every chance here and the apprentices 3lb claim could be what tips things in its favour and the trainer has a 2-10 strike rate at this course.
Bluella 7/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 7.00
Eight runners in this five furlong dash with half the field having been known to lead before so it should be fast and furious but I think it will be set up for something coming from off the pace. I Am A Dreamer 14/1 has got stall 2 the nearest of the front runners to the rails but I'm not sure if this one will be away fast enough in this race to make the stall 2 draw count as it might be better when raced over further and may get outpaced at this distance on this fast surface but isn't any value to lay at the price, Maajdah 5/2 and Araifjan 9/2 could do best of those racing to the fore with the former being a 3yo and the latter being my 3rd top rated horse and this horse is usually a good yardstick when on song and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the top weight YIMOU 4/1 is my top rated using just 2021 course and distance times which is usually a positive tick beside its name and another tick could be that it is dropped in class to what its usually faced recently so has to be given a good chance in this race but I do have GARTH ROCKETT 16/1 (EW) rated just 1lb higher using this ones best time form 2020 a tick in this ones favour is that it has good trainer, 19% and jockey, 35%, stats and I the main reason I will be backing it is because of the price which looks generous I do think it has a decent each way chance.
Yimou 4/1 3rd -1pt
Garth Rockett 18/1 6th -2pts
Lya bets: Araifjan -3.33, Maajdah +1pt
Total -5.33pts
Total on the day -6.33pts
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