Only a poor turnout of 7 runners for a class 3 handicap but it should be a true run affair, the good to firm ground maybe against First Edition 5/1 and might be worth laying that's if the rain stays away but that doesn't look likely according to the weather forecast, Celsius 8/1 comes out in 3rd top spot using a time recorded at Ascot and does run fairly constantly when given the right conditions - distance, going and class, Ginger Jam 7/2 is the one that comes out 2nd best on my figures using a time from Beverley last year but my top rated is FAUSTUS 11/4 who is one of two known front running types in this race and if it gets to the front it should prove hard to catch plus it has decent trainer stats and good jockey stats making me think its fancied by the stable.
Faustus 11/4 3rd -1pt
Lay bet: First Edition +1pt
Total 0pts
LEICESTER 3.45
A tricky race to analyse with 7 of the 9 runners either being 3yo’s or lightly raced 4yo’s, I think Bailey's Afterparty 10/1 may need further to shine so might be worth laying if of any value to do so, Dodgy Bob 25/1 is one of two front running sorts in this race and comes out 3rd best on my speed figures but hasn't been in good form lately which is reflected in its price, my 2nd top rated is Amathus 4/1 who is quite versatile with its tactics apart from racing from the front but that is what I expect WE’RE REUNITED 7/2 will do in this race and if leading it could prove hard to catch but the trainers 0-9 in the last 2 weeks and its 40 days since the stables last winner which doesnt boost my confidence over its chances of winning but i will be having a small bet on it.
We're Reunited 4/1 3rd -1pt
Bailey's Afterparty +1pt
Total 0pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30
A 10 runner race over 5 furlongs with 4 front running types in the field, I will look to lay both Expert Opinion 10/1 who might not really like this surface and Kingsholme 10/3 who may struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace which I expect there to be in this race, if they are single figure prices, Kim Wexter 12/1 and Mutabaahy 12/1 could both go well and might be worth an each way interest at double figure prices, my idea of the winner and the value call is TANTASTIC 20/1 (EW) who will be trying to stay on strongly at the business end of the race, the trainer is 4-17 for the last 2 weeks so is in good form so I'm hoping this one adds to their tally but at the price it has to be an each way wager.
Tantastic 20/1 9th -2pts
Lay bets: Expert Opinion +1pt, Kingsholme +1pt
Total 0pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
A 13 runner race where 5 of them have been known to lead before, the betting will be the deciding factor if there's any lays or not and it looks like not, of the front runners Freedom Flyer and Champagne Supernova could do best of those racing to the fore but I doubt they will hold on for the win as neither are in my top 4 ratings, Jackstar is my 4th top and Zamjar sits in 3rd top spot and could fill the minor places, Tomshalfbrother is top rated on just 2021 times but that time isn't good enough to make my top 5 but it has a time from 2020 that makes it 2nd top on overall figures so may be worth an each way interest but my money will be riding on ICONIC KNIGHT 11/2 who hasn't raced over this distance so far this year and this drop back in trip will suit it, its best time from 2020 makes it my top rated and the jockey booking looks a positive one so lets hope that's a good pointer and follows up its win last time out.
Iconic Knight 13/2 8th -1pt
Total on the day -1pt
No comments:
Post a Comment