A 10 runner Listed class race with a couple of front runners, the top weight Summerghand is dropped in class from its recent races and if reproducing its best time from 2020 here over the Rowley course it could win but its been way below that standard time wise so far this year and not worth risking, Adaay To Remember won last time out in a lower class race and might be a progressive type but this is a big jump in class but being a front running type it could go well but not one I would like to rely on, I will be on the side of TABDEED 2/1 who is another dropped in class and comes out as my top rated using its time from Newbury last time out when it finished 2nd and has been found a good opportunity to go one better here, I expect it will be the favourite but I don't mind backing shorter priced horse in races where the prize money is significant.
Tabdeed 2/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
BEVERLEY 3.15
This is a Listed class race with 4 known front runners amongst the field of 12 and both Tis Marvellous and Justanotherbottle could do well from the front as both are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay Dakota Gold 5/1 if its a single figure price as I think its better over longer distances but with the likely fast pace here it might play to its strengths but maybe too late for it to win this race, Wise Words my 3rd top rated will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish as will be TARBOOSH 14/1 (EW) who comes out top rated using a time from Musselburgh this year and hopefully it will be an each way price.
Tarboosh 14/1 9th -2pts
Lay bet Dakota Gold +1pt
Total -1pt
BEVERLEY 3.50
A fairly big field of 15 runners with a couple of known pacesetters, until I've seen the betting I'm not sure if there's any worthwhile lays amongst them, Duke Of Firenze, Ventura Flame, Not On Your Nellie and Arnold have times that could make them competitive if at their best, I will be going with 2 wagers in this race firstly LATIN FIVE 11/2 who comes out top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures and usually stays on strongly at the business end of its races but my top rated DARK SHOT 11/1 is the only natural looking front runner in the field and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but the trainers 0-17 for the last 2 weeks doesn't fill me with confidence so I will go with the 2 bets to cover the angles.
Dark Shot 14/1 4th -1pt
Latin Five 8/1 5th -1pt
Total -2pts
WINDSOR 4.20
A poor turnout of just 7 runners but there is a couple of front running types so it should be a true run race, I will look to lay Libertine Belle 5/1 who might need further to show its best, as for the winner I have to admit its a race where i will have to go with dutching 3 runners, LETHAL BLAST 7/2 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as its only 2lb below GLAMOROUS BREEZE 3/1 on just 2021 times but the top weight SECOND COLLECTION 6/1 has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated by 3lbs so its close between all 3 of them for various reasons and I cannot split them
Second Collections 6/1 1st +6pts
Glamorous Breeze 3/1 2nd -1pt
Lethal Blast 7/2 4th -1pt
Lay bet Libertine Belle +1pt
Total +5pts
NEWMARKET 5.35
If this race had any known front running types it would be a cracking race but the lack of known early pace already means my stakes will be kept low, James Watt, Secretinthepark and Nibras Again are all rated within a 1lb of each other in 3rd to 5th top rated so could battle it out to make the frame, in 2nd top spot I've got Han Solo Berger but my top rated is the top weight SOUL SEEKER 8/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and I do like it when a horse comes out top rated carrying higher weight against lesser opponents.
Soul Seeker 8/1 8th -1pt
Total -1pt
REDCAR 6.45
With nearly half the field being either 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts this race is hard to analyse but I do think the connections of HAIL SEZER 6/1 have found their horse a good opportunity to follow up from the race it won last time out at Doncaster and recorded a fast time the race before at Carlisle when finishing 2nd which puts it at the top of my speed figures list but the trainers 0-4 for the last 2 weeks means my stakes will be kept low.
Hail Sezer 6/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
REDCAR 7.15
I was going to leave this race alone with once again half the field being 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts but when I checked the time recorded by ABSOLUTE DREAM 4/1 when it won over this course and distance 2 runs ago I was surprised to see it was well above what I would normally expect from a class 6 race, its last race was over 7 furlongs so can be ignored and is quickly dropped back to its winning distance and should confirm the form of its course and distance win over Shes A Deva.
Absolute Dream 4/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
Total on the day -2pts
No comments:
Post a Comment