TROUSER THE CASH 5/2 has only slow times on turf over this distance and is 0-4 on turf it might be a bit too short for it on good to firm ground but it does have a fast time from on the AW at Chelmsford and usually races in midfield, the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't inspire confidence so maybe worth laying at the price.
BREEZYANDBRIGHT 7/4 won quite nicely last time out but that was in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve to pick up the front runners in this race, it does have good trainer/jockey stats but this horse was the stables only winner in the past fortnight and is poor value in my opinion and might be worth laying as you lose very little if it does win.
ARZAAK 4/1 one of two possible pacesetters in this race and it has the best time for just 2021 but that is relatively slow compared to overall times from last year and even 2019, its best time from last year makes it my top rated but the trainer is 1-65 at this course and hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks.
TILSWORTH ROSE 10/1 the 2nd of the known front running types in this race, the trainer is 0-15 in the past fortnight and is 1-92 at this course, it hasn't run on good to firm ground so far this year but its best from 2020 would make it competitive.
SWELL SONG 10/1 hasn't shown much time wise so far this year while its best times from 2020 and 2019 would put it in the mix, it has average trainer/jockey stats and he is 2-22 in the last two weeks.
KELINDA DICE 12/1 hasn't any recent form over this trip on good to firm ground and I am of the opinion it might do better when raced over a longer distance, not sure about the jockey booking, 0-1 while the trainer has a poorish 7% win ratio at this course.
SWEET NOTHING 14/1 is a 3yo who is making its handicap debut in this race but it would need to improve dramatically on what its shown so far to win this race.
CONCLUSION: I am not filled with confidence in my selection for this race because of the trainers poor record, see above, but ARZAAK 4/1 is top rated on both this years and last years figures and is one of only 2 front running types in the race so if getting to the front it could be hard to catch.
Arzaak 10/1 5th -1pt
Lay bet Breezyandbright +1pt
Total 0pts
SALISBURY 3.05
ADDITIONAL 5/1 this ones trainer has been in good form lately with a 3-8 record and the jockey booking also looks as though it could be a positive, a 19% win ratio, but time wise it needs to improve and I think its better when raced over further but will be staying on at the finish.
DELEGATE THIS LORD 11/4 this one hasn't any course and distance form to its name since 2019 where its best time would make it my top rated but only by 1lb and another that should be staying on at the finish, the jockey booking, 1-13 does put me off a little.
NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND 6/1 the trainer is in decent form with a 3-15 in the last 2 weeks and has a 2-8 record at this course but is 0-2 with their older horses and the jockey is 0-3 again on the stables older horses and time wise is my 4th top rated but there is only 4lbs between 4th and 1st top rated.
NEFARIOUS 8/1 has poor trainer, 0-5 and jockey, 0-6, with the stables older horses, it hasn't got any recent distance form since 2018 mainly due to it looking like it needs a longer distance to show its true worth so I will look to lay it.
UNDER CURFEW 15/8 this ones jockey has a decent 19% win ratio with the stables older horses at this course and the trainer is 5-63 in the last 2 weeks plus its best time was recorded this year at Leicester so this course should suit it, it is the only known front runner in the field plus its only 1lb off top spot.
SENECA CHIEF 15/2 the trainers recent form, 3-9, is very good and is my 3rd top rated just 1lb below my 2nd top rated so it could be close nearing the finish, the trainer is 0-2 at this course though and the jockey 0-3 on the stables older horses.
CONCLUSION: I will look to lay Nefarious 8/1 who might want further than this distance to shine but should be trying to stay on at the finish, I am hoping that UNDER CURFEW 15/8 who is my top rated on just 2021 times can lead from start to finish and hopefully the jockey booking shows the stable expect it to run well here.
Under Curfew 4/1 2nd -1pt
Lay bet Nefarious +1pt
Total on the day 0pts
Underlined - Lay
Bold - Bet
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