A 12 runner race where it is very competitive between my top five ratings, I will look to lay Obee Jo who may prefer some cut in the ground and it was a slow time when it finished 3rd on good to firm last time out and may also prefer a longer distance, East Street Revue seems to be gradually getting a little bit slower each year and is another I will look to lay, Night On Earth hasn't been in form lately and comes out 4th best on my figures, Young Tiger is 2nd top on just 2021 times and 3rd top overall but has poor trainer/jockey stats with their older aged horses, Latin Five is my top rated on 2021 times but drops to 2nd on overall figures but the jockeys 0-6 for the stable is a bit off-putting but I might back it as a covering bet but my main bet will be DARK SHOT who hasn't done a fast time so far this year but its best time from Leicester last year would see it winning a shade cosily but this ones trainer/jockey stats are on the poor side so my stakes will be kept on the low side but the trainers record for the last 2 weeks has been 2 wins from just 9 runners so i have to back it.
DARK SHOT 7/2 1PW 2nd -1pt
OBEE JO 4/1 2PL +2pts
EAST STREET REVUE 7/1 2PL +2pts
Total +3pts
CARLISLE 7.20
Of these 11 runners I can see 3 that like to lead and Denzil's Laughing is one of them but it sets a slower pace when allowed to lead and wont be able to do that here so it becomes a lay in my opinion if a single figure price, another possible pacesetter Shesadabber only comes out 5th top rated on my figures so I doubt it could hold on for the lead but I also doubt it is fast enough to lead with a faster horse in the race, Gunnerside comes out 4th best using a time from this year at Ayr, Afandem has a time that makes it my 3rd top rated but I have a feeling that time might be a one off where it got towed along in a fast run affair so I think it might have been flattered and a shorter price than it ought to be, Debawtry is actually my top rated by 2lb’s but its recent form has been way below that level and the jockeys 0-4 record for the stable also puts me off its chances so I will be putting my money on SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 12/1 who is the 3rd front runner in the race and if getting to the front it ought to prove hard to catch and the trainer does have a good 23% win record with their older horses and I like the jockey booking as it is his first ride on this horse.
SAMBUCCA SPIRIT 12/1 1PEW 5th -2pts
DENZILS LAUGHING 8/1 2PL +2pt
Total on the day +3pts
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