Only 7 runners in a class 3 race, Lethal Lunch 11/2 has relatively slow times and may find this trip too short on good to firm ground so I would look to lay it, Muscika comes out 4th top rated using a 2020 time and usually likes to track the leaders, Typhoon Ten comes out 3rd top rated but the jockeys 0-17 record for today's stable makes me think they have another target in mind, Wentworth Falls can be held up or track the pacesetters but would need to improve time wise to win this race that's if others run to their potential, One Night Stand has a reliable time from 2020 at Windsor that would make it my 2nd top rated and has decent trainer/jockey stats but the jockey is 0-4 on the stables older horses but that isn't enough data to be taken as a definite, Dancinginthewoods can track the leaders or be held up but its best time wouldn't put it in my top 4, Case Key has a fast time and it is the only known front running type in the race so could be dangerous with a soft lead but it was recorded in a lower class race and I'm not sure its up to winning in this class.
SUMMARY: Case Key could go well from the front and could make the frame but with only 2 places I wouldn't back it each way, my money will be riding on ONE NIGHT STAND 11/1 who is usually held up or in midfield and then stays on strongly at the finish.
One Night Stand 11/1 1st +11pts (Betfair SP -)
Total +11pts
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HAYDOCK 6.30
Another 7 runner affair in a class 4 race, Marks Choice is usually held up for a late run but hasn't run recently over this distance on good to firm ground and its best from 2019 is only good enough for joint 4th top spot, Ventura Express prefers to track the leaders but time wise it would need to improve to win this race, Nibras Again has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but its been way below that level since that year, Fox Hill usually stays on at the business end of its races but is only 3rd best on my ratings, Secretinthepark 6/1 is the other joint 4th top rated and usually stays on at the finish over this distance but maybe too late for the win so one to lay, Dark Shot is the one i think will set the pace to the race and comes out top rated using a 2020 time from Leicester, Tenaya Canyon this 3yo hasn't any form over this distance on good to firm ground so I couldn't back or lay this one.
SUMMARY: I am hoping that DARK SHOT 11/1 will set the pace to this race and then should prove hard to reel in, the trainers 0-5 at this course isn't ideal but not really enough data to make a confident analysis and the jockeys 1-24 when riding for this stable does look like a negative so my stakes will be kept low.
Dark Shot 11/1 4th -1pt
Total on the day +10pts
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