INAAM 16/1 an 8yo who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, this trip might be a bit too short for it and I don't think this surface really suits it as its ran twice over this c/d and didn't run well on either occasion and one i would look to lay and the jockeys 0-4 for the stable doesn't inspire confidence.
BREAKING RECORDS 14/1 this 6yo looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and hasn't shown much in its latest runs, it would need to improve on its best turf distance time to win here and another one that i will possibly lay if of value plus the jockeys 3-144 win ratio is off-putting.
SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 11/2 this 4yo led and won last time out at Chelmsford but the time would only make it my 5th top rated on overall figures but at least we know its in good heart, its best c/d time would see it even lower down on my figures plus the trainers record here is 1-42.
DANA FOREVER 12/1 a 4yo who is versatile with its racing tactics and my 2nd top rated on recent (2020/21) c/d times but drops to 4th best on overall figures and it can struggle to stay this far with a fast early pace and i doubt it will be allowed to set a slightly slower pace in this race, while the 7lb claiming apprentice is 0-5 on the AW tracks for the trainer.
GOOD EARTH 9/4 this 4yo is versatile with its racing tactics and could lead if nothing else wants to but I'm not 100% sure this surface suits it and also may be better when dropped back in distance but could be a danger if allowed an easy lead but I doubt that will happen here and at the price has to be of value to lay the win part.
AL ASEF 4/1 this 6yo’s best c/d time would see it outside my top 3 ratings while its best time overall recorded at Chelmsford isn't good enough to make the top 3 again and hasn't won since its 2yo days back in 2017 so another i will look to lay.
BYTHEBAY 9/1 a 4yo who is a maiden after 5 runs and hasn't run before over this distance and i think it might get outpaced in the early stages over this trip if there's a good early pace so may do better when tried again over a longer distance but the trainer has a 33% win ratio and the jockey is 31% so it looks like they are at least expecting a big run and if there is a fast early pace and the leaders fade it could play into this one’s hands.
TOMSHALFBROTHER 12/1 a 5yo who comes out in top spot on my figures both for recent and overall times and it likes a decent target to aim at so with a clear run this race could well be run to suit it, the apprentice jockey has a 17% win ratio on the stables older horses which I'm hoping is a positive.
GLORIOUS CHARMER 16/1 this 5 yo comes out 3rd top on recent figures but drops to 5th on overall figures and is usually held up in the rear or middle of the field and then runs on at the finish but hasn't won a race on the AW tracks from 12 attempts.
SUMMARY: With Sir Rodneyredblood, Dana Forever and Good Earth all having led before this should be a true run affair of these 3 maybe Dana Forever will do best unless they push each other into going off too fast and then they all fade in the closing stages of the race which could play into the hands of TOMSHALFBROTHER 12/1 who is my top rated and likes a target to aim at in the home straight and it could also suit BYTHEBAY 9/1 who also stays on at this trip and would maybe be better off over a longer trip but this race might be run fast enough to suit it and this one has good trainer/jockey stats and I will be backing them both in this race.
Tomshalfbrother 12/1 2nd -1pt
Bythebay 9/1 5th -1pt
Total on the day -2pts
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