NOT ON YOUR NELLIE 5/1 may not prefer the going to be too fast and won at Ripon on good ground and that time would make it my top rated.
CAPTAIN CORCORAN 3/1 this one only has slow times over this distance and looks as though further would suit it better and at the price i would have a small lay bet.
USTATH 9/1 one of five horses that has been known to lead but hasn't shown much time wise recently and its last win was in 2018 so another i would lay if it stays at a single figure price.
HARROGATE 8/1 the 2nd possible pacesetter and comes out 2nd top on recent, 2020/21, times and 3rd top overall but is 0-7 on turf.
ALSVINDER 11/4 is number 3 that could lead and its best recent time would make it 3rd top but slips to 4th best on overall speed figures.
BLACKCURRANT 10/1 the 4th possible leader has only slow times over this distance on turf and hasn't made the frame from its 5 turf runs, so maybe best when running on the AW tracks.
CARLOVIAN 12/1 this one races as though it needs a slower surface or maybe a longer distance and it could be it needs both and I think it will be an outsider in this race.
SUWAAN 8/1 the 5th and final front runner but this one has been in bad form on its last few runs and hasn't won a race since 2017, so I will lay it at the price.
SUMMARY: With 5 possible front runners in this apprentice riders handicap it could play into the hands of one of the 3 runners coming from off the pace at the finish, if pushed I think that Harrogate or Alsvinder could do best of those racing from the front but they could go off too fast and fade nearing the finish, Carlovian and Captain Corcoran have both been known to stay on at the finish over this distance and maybe need further which leaves me with the top weight NOT ON YOUR NELLIE 5/1 who doesn't want it to be really firm going, which I doubt it will be, and if able to reproduce its best speed figure from Ripon last year would see it winning with a bit in hand but, there is nearly always a but, it hasn't run since last September and therefore may need this run for fitness but I cannot find anything in the race to back so I will go with a smallish win bet.
Not On Your Nellie 12/1 1st +12pts (Betfair sp 17.07)
Total on the day 12pts
1 comment:
Wow, what a easy winner and what a starting price!
Post a Comment