A poor turnout of just 5 runners but luckily there is a front runner amongst them, this distance might be a bit too short for the top weight Requinto Dawn and it might be value to lay looking at the tissue prices (5/4 favourite) time wise there is very little between the other 4 runners, Lorna Cole also may prefer further but is usually staying on strongly at this distance but would need a perfect run to pick the leader, Van Gerwen has only 2 previous runs over this c/d and neither time was fast enough to win, Steelrivers best time comes from 2019 but has still run some decent races but i am hoping SLOWMO 7/2 can get away smartly from stall 1 and gain control of the rails and from there kick on in the home straight and hold on for the win.
Slowm0 4/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.15
This is a classy looking class 2 race with 8 runners but only Repartee haven been known to lead before but that's only when nothing else wants to set the pace, the bottom weight Juan Les Pins comes out top rated using a Newcastle time but that time was recorded in a lower class race than this one so may get outclassed here, Summerghand will probably be the favourite but I'm not sure it can give the weight of 7lbs or more to the rest of the field but I expect it will run a genuine race, Brian The Snail is held at the weights by my selection but does have a time from Newcastle that would see it make the frame, I will siding with STREAMLINE 7/2 who has had 3 runs this year and its best time came from Lingfield this year so hasn't run as badly as it looks at first, it hasn't run on this surface before but the jockey booking makes me think connections are expecting to win this race.
Streamline 7/2 1st +3.5pts (Betfair sp 4.1)
Total +3.5pts
CHELMSFORD 7.20
A 7 runner race with one natural front running type, Capla Spirit, and another that could lead if nothing else wants to, Royal Birth, I'm not convinced that Capla Spirit likes this course and even if it leads I doubt it can hold on for the win, Royal Birth has a time from back in 2019 that would make it my joint top rated and hasn't raced over this c/d recently but has only won one race per year recently so may have won its quota for this year, or has it, I think it could run a good race and does have good trainer, 16% and jockey, 20% stats, Mokaatil comes out 3rd best on my figures and should be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win, I am putting my faith, and money, on JACK THE TRUTH 3/1 who is quite versatile with its racing style, apart from setting the pace, the trainer stats are 20% win ratio and the jockey has a 22% win rate for all types of race but that goes up to 50% when riding this stables older horses.
Jack The Truth 6/1 3rd -1pt
Total +1.5
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