A field of 8 and one known front runner in POWER OVER ME 3/1 and its time from Chelmsford makes it rated 71 on my figures and could feasibly lead all the way, Madrinho is also rated 71 but that is using a 2018 figure, I've got 3 runners all rated 72, Knockout Blow would move to top spot on its own with the apprentices 5lb claim but its best form comes in class 6 races, Shamshon gets its rating from 2019 and hasn't been as good time wise in 2020 or this month, I will also be backing DESERT LAND 6/4 who recorded its 72 rating on its run last time out when winning and could follow up here but i will back them both to cover the angles, they are the first two in the betting which doesn't surprise me and with my ratings making it so close my stakes will be kept low.
Power Over Me 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.10 )
Desert Land 7/4 5th (-1pt)
Total: +2pts
LINGFIELD 4.00
Not the greatest of races and then add on that its an apprentice jockeys race muddies the waters, i will look to lay (Everkyllachy 7/2) if its a single figure price as it may not stay the distance, Top Boy can find this trip a bit too far if there's a fast early pace and that might happen here but the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in apprentice races, Storm Melody would be top rated if i used its best time from Chelmsford but its only run over this c/d resulted in a low speed figure, Our Man In Havana could go well and is versatile with its racing tactics so maybe worth an each way wager if of value but my money will be riding on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 7/1 who could lead all the way in this race as it is the only natural front running sort in the entrants.
Dreamboat Annie 11/1 4th (-1pt)
Lay bet: Everkyllachy +1pt
Total: 0pts
NEWCASTLE 7.00
Red Pike who is a 10yo seems to be on a downward spiral and has shown nothing worthwhile for awhile now but the 11yo LUCKY LODGE 11/1 is still going strong and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways here and at the price its worth an each way flutter, maybe its stablemate Tahmeen 3/1 will lead and set the race up for it and Tathmeen might even do enough from the front to make the frame but isn't an each Way price, I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 2/1 in this race, it is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and the jockey booking looks a positive one and comes out top on my figures.
Pearl Of Qatar 2/1 2nd (-1pt)
Lucky Lodge 11/1 4th (-1pt)
Total: -2pts
NEWCASTLE 7.30
Another race where I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, El Hombre 4/1 is capable on its day but the trainer is 1-40 with its older horses at this course and the jockey is 0-14 which is enough to put me off its chances especially at the price, North Wind 12/1 might need a longer trip and the jockeys 0-19 record on the stables older horses makes me wonder if this one will be expected to win but it is a biggish price, Shoot To Kill could try to lead from stall 2 but it might be a bit outclassed at this level, I think/hope the early pace will be set by OUTRAGE 4/1 who has on 4 races been placed in 4 races from its 9 runs over this c/d and could possibly lead all the way here but I will also be backing BIRKENHEAD 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 1 should get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the jockey does well for the stable.
Outrage 4/1 2nd (-1pt)
Birkenhead 12/1 7th (-1pt)
Total: - 2pts
Total on the day: -2pts
No comments:
Post a Comment