This must be one of hardest races I have ever had to analyse, there's four that have been known to lead and I have got five of the ten runners as possible winners of the race but I have come a conclusion, Kondratiev Wand, with good jockey stats, in stall 7 and Will To Win, with good trainer and jockey stats, in stall 9 have both been known to lead before and are in my five that like to lead plus the former is my 4th top rated so could do enough from the front to make the frame so might be worth a small each way wager at 14/1, Total Commitment would need to improve time wise to win but will be trying to stay on at the finish plus the trainer does well at this course, the top weight Huraiz has good trainer/jockey stats and is another that will be staying on at the business end of the race but hasn't raced over this c/d before and the betting doesn't indicate that it is strongly fancied for this race, I will be pinning my hopes on TOP BREEZE 8/1 who is my top rated and coming out of stall 1, which is ideal for front running type, I'm hoping it will get away smartly and gain control of the rails and then kicking for home once in the home straight and get back to winning ways.
Top Breeze 8/1 5th (-1pt)
Total -1pt
LINGFIELD 3.45
Only 7 runners but luckily there's a couple who have been known to lead, I could lay a couple of the runners but i expect they will be outsiders in the betting, Cappananty Con 5/1 is my 4th top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but its best speed figure is a bit below what will be needed to win this race and maybe worth laying at the price, Barrington is my joint 2nd top rated horse and has been known to lead before and is in stall 2 but the other joint 2nd top rated is Swiss Pride the other known front running type in the race and this one is drawn in stall 1 so I can see this pair battling for the lead from the off and maybe they might set the race up for one coming off the pace and I do have SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 7/2 rated 1lb higher and it likes to track the leaders and then pounce if the leaders falter but seeing how closely rated my top three are my stakes will not be at full strength.
Sir Rodneyredblood 5/1 5th
Total (-1pt)
Total on the day: -2pts
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