Only 6 runners and I will look to lay (Jackstar who may need further to show its best and Sir Oliver who may prefer a different surface) Real Estate and Wiley Post both need to improve time wise to win this race, Tin Hat who is one from one over this c/d and could improve but is my 2nd top rated using a 2020 time while INVINCIBLE LARNE 6/4 who is top rated using a time from Chelmsford also has a decent time already from this year over this c/d and if able to reproduce its Chelmsford time it would winning a shade cosily, as you probably know I hate backing favourites but with hopefully a few pounds in hand it will get back to winning ways.
Invincible Larne 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.4)
Lay bet: Jack Star +1pt, Sir Oliver +1pt
Total: +5pts
LINGFIELD 3.35
Down to 5 runners for this race at least there is 2 pacesetters in the field, Outrage could try to lead but is my 4th top rated but it is very close between all of my top 4, Verne Castle is the other possible pacesetter and comes out 3rd best but only 2lbs below my top two, SHAMSHON 11/4 is joint top rated using a 2020 time and has a good time from 2021 showing its in good form, the other joint top rated is SAHEEQ 8/1 who recorded its time in 2020 and has run this month so should be fit enough to go well, it is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it to top spot on its own but his record is 0-2 so not sure what to expect but is 0-3 on its previous c/d runs so i will go with backing them both.
Saaheq 8/1 4th -1pt
Shamshon 3/1 5th -1pt
Total -2pts
KEMPTON 7.50
Not a great race but hey ho a winner is a winner whatever the class of race, I hope all 8 run so I can go each way with my selection, I think the pace will be set by Kindly and Turanga Leela although I'm not sure this surface will suit the latter so Kindly could go well if allowed to set the pace, Chocco Star has a good time from 2019 but hasn't been near that level since although its not run over this c/d recently, Gold Brocade has only 1 previous c/d run resulting in a low speed figure, Napping could go well if in the mood but I will be taking a punt on SEPAHI 12/1 (EW) it has a relatively slow time to its name from 2020 but its good enough to be top rated on just recent, 2020/21 times, but has a time from Chelmsford last year that makes it top rated overall on recent times and looks value to be an each way punt.
Sepahi 12/1 4th (-2pts)
Total on the day: +1pt
2 comments:
Perfect analysis of 2.25 at Lingfield - Well done! Ken The Addick!
Thanks, Ken. Appreciated.
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