A field of ten with three known to lead and two of them have the stall one and two draw so the race could evolve around them, I will look to lay (Hey Ho Lets Go 4/1) who races as though further will suit it better and I don't think it will catch the leaders but could possibly run into a place but i doubt it will be an each way price, anything else I don't fancy I think will be double figure prices so of no value, A Go Go is a possible pacesetter but stall ten isn't ideal and its only joint 5th top on my figures along with Something Lucky, the top weight Saaheq is my 3rd top rated and with the apprentices seven pound claim it moves to top spot but the apprentices no wins from two attempts for the stable puts me off a little, Smokey is joint top rated but stall nine isn't going to help its cause and it has been beaten on both of its previous course and distance runs, my money will be riding on SPUROFTHEMOMENT 9/2 who is a front running type and has the plum draw in stall one and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up on its win from last time it ran.
Spurofthemoment 9/2 3rd (-1pt)
Lay bet: Hey Ho Let's Go +1pt
Total: 0pts
NEWCASTLE 4.30
Just 7 runners and only Mythmaker known as a front runner but this one is only 5th top rated on my figures but could do better with an uncontested early lead, I will look to lay (Spartan Fighter 5/1 has had 2 previous c/d runs but not made the frame in either) I've got just 1lb between my top 3 horses, Be Proud moves to top spot thanks to its jockeys 5lb claim but the jockey only has a 7% win ratio for the stable, Glasvegas also moves to joint top spot this time thanks to its apprentices 3lb claim but this ones time came from Wolverhampton in 2020 but is 0-5 on its AW races, my money will be riding on VENTURA LIGHTNING 11/1 who is only 1lb off top spot and its time was recorded on its only previous run over this c/d last year and this is a drop in class.
Ventura Lightning 11/1 1st (+11pts) (Betfair SP 12.93)
Lay bet: Spartan Fighter +1pt
Total: +12pts
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00
Again only 7 runners with 2 known front runners and another that has led but only if nothing else wants to, on my speed figures Royal Birth looks as though it might get outpaced and therefore should be a lay but it has a good jockey booking making me think connections are expecting a big run, Lomu comes out 2nd best on my figures but the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable is a little off-putting, the bottom weight VENTUROUS 5/2 is another with good jockey stats who is well in on official handicap ratings and could do best of those coming from off the pace, I will also be backing ORNATE 11/2 who is a front running sort and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch, so I will back them both to cover the angles.
Venturous 5/2 1st (+2.5pts) + F/C £26.01 (Betfair SP 3.22)
Ornate 11/1 2nd (-1pts)
Total: +1.5pts
Total on the day: +13.5pts
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